Dr. Erik Jetmir Releases New Study on the 2024 Presidential Election
Research comparing Trumps loss of support from 2016 to 2020 and why his felony convictions, Roe V Wade and, new youth voters make a 2024 win unlikely.
Trump possessed no background in public service, intellectually uninterested in public policy or policy making, no military service, and had a disdain for anything other than his own self-interests.”
NEW YORK, NY, USA, August 5, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- A comprehensive new study has revealed that former President Donald Trump is unlikely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. The research, which delves into various factors influencing voter behavior and election dynamics, highlights significant challenges facing Trump's campaign.— Dr. Erik Jetmir
The article:
https://medium.com/@ErikJetmir/trump-will-likely-lose-in-2024-and-my-research-exposes-why-33d4067692b0
Key Findings:
Narrow Margins in Swing States: Trump's 2016 victory was marked by razor-thin margins in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, which were crucial to his Electoral College win, have shown a significant shift towards Democratic candidates in subsequent elections. For instance, Michigan saw a swing of 164,892 votes towards Democrats between 2016 and 2020.
Disenfranchisement Among Trump Voters: Research conducted in the summer of 2023 found that 82% of white male college-educated Trump supporters felt disenfranchised by media portrayals. This sentiment could lead to a substantial reduction in voter turnout among his base, potentially decreasing Republican support by 13-18%.
Impact of Felony Convictions: Trump's legal troubles, including 34 felony convictions, have eroded his support among Republican voters. Polls indicate that between 10% and 20% of his 2020 supporters may reconsider or withdraw their support due to these convictions, translating to a potential loss of millions of votes.
New Voters and Roe v. Wade: Approximately 16.6 million new voters, predominantly leaning Democratic, will be eligible to vote in 2024. Additionally, the overturning of Roe v. Wade has mobilized a significant portion of the electorate, particularly women and younger voters, who are more likely to support Democratic candidates. An estimated 10% of Republican women might either not vote or vote Democrat due to the Roe v. Wade decision, impacting around 3.1 million voters.
Election Denial and Certification Issues: Nearly 70 pro-Trump election officials, who are also election deniers, have been positioned in crucial swing states. These officials could disrupt the certification of election results, posing a significant threat to the integrity of the electoral process.
Conclusion: The convergence of these critical factors suggests that Trump's path to victory in the 2024 election is increasingly narrow. His strategies to subvert the vote certification process reflect a recognition of his precarious position. Under fair democratic conditions, Trump's chances of winning are very unlikely.
About the Research
This study was conducted by Dr. Erik Jetmir, a politics, national security and policy researcher, focusing on the impact of voter behavior, legal issues, and new voter demographics on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. The research aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing electoral outcomes. This press release aims to summarize the findings of the paper and highlight the key points that suggest Trump is unlikely to win the 2024 election.
Dr. Erik Jetmir
Dr. Erik Jetmir
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