A week before NATO’s pivotal 75th anniversary summit in Washington D.C., Allied parliamentarians met in Lisbon to discuss  the increasingly interconnected security threats and challenges along the eastern and southern flanks. The Kremlin’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, as well as persistent instability across NATO’s southern neighbourhoods that Russia has purposefully exacerbated through a range of  destabilising actions, underscore both the complexity of these threats and the linkages among them. 

Strategically situated along the Atlantic Ocean, Portugal serves as a natural bridge between Europe, North America, and Africa. Portuguese interlocutors emphasised that the country’s geographic location accords it a pivotal role in the Alliance. Not surprisingly, Portuguese governments have long advocated for NATO’s 360-degree approach and enhanced partnerships with states across the southern neighbourhoods. It is worth noting that 2024 marks both the 30th anniversary of the establishment of NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue and the 20th anniversary of the  Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. Both efforts constitute critical pillars of allied relations with the southern neighbourhoods. Indeed, strengthening cooperation with global partners has moved up the list of NATO priorities as Allies recognise that the challenges they confront in the transatlantic space are increasingly intertwined with developments in other regions. 

To learn more about Portugal’s key priorities for the Washington Summit, how the country views Allied engagement with the southern neighbourhoods, and how it assesses the critical challenges along the Alliance’s eastern and southern flanks, a joint delegation from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s (NATO PA) Sub-Committee on NATO Partnerships (PCNP) and the Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group (GSM) visited Lisbon from 1-3 July. The delegation comprised of twenty-eight members from twelve NATO Allies and was led by Marcos Perestrello de Vasconcellos (Portugal), Vice-President of the NATO PA and Chairperson of the PCNP, and Fernando Gutierrez (Spain), Chairperson of the GSM.

Portuguese Priorities for the 2024 Washington Summit 

Portugal, a founding member of NATO, has consistently demonstrated an unwavering and enduring commitment to the Alliance through its participation in NATO missions and operations. In a briefing at the Portuguese Joint Operations Command, military leaders discussed Portugal’s most import roles and missions, including its ongoing participation in the Baltic air-policing mission, Operation Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean, and troop deployments in Romania to reinforce the southeastern flank. 

Nuno Melo, Portugal’s Minister of Defence, highlighted the country’s political and security priorities for the July NATO Washington Summit. Portugal supports the 2022 Strategic Concept and the modernisation of NATO’s defence structure, aiming to enhance its deterrence capabilities against all threats, including nuclear and hybrid. Additionally, Portugal is committed to reaching 2% of GDP spending on defence by 2029 to ensure robust collective security while enhancing the defence-industrial base. 

Paulo Rangel, Minister of State and of Foreign Affairs of Portugal, underscored that the Summit should focus on supporting Ukraine, enhancing deterrence and defence, bolstering partnerships with the southern flank, increasing defence spending and burden sharing, and deepening engagement with global partners. This will notably be the first Summit with Sweden as a full member, highlighting the value of Alliance enlargement. 

Portugal’s position on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is clear: it strongly supports the defence of democracy and international law and condemns the invasion of a sovereign state. Portuguese interlocutors expected that, in Washington, NATO leaders will approve a package of long-term security assistance to Ukraine with a minimum baseline of USD 40 billion for 2025, to which Portugal will contribute. This will undergird the ten-year Agreement on Security Cooperation it signed with the Ukrainian government in May. 

This support requires the active and sustained commitment of governments, parliaments, and civil society. Allied parliaments reflect a broad range of ideological and policy preferences. Mr. Rangel stressed that this democratic heterogeneity demands a commitment to sustain a constant dialogue on these strategic challenges. If Ukraine does not prevail, he warned, Allies will certainly face further Russian aggression in the future at an even greater cost. 

Challenges Emanating from the Southern Flank

Allies confront challenges across the southern flank ranging from conventional conflicts to hybrid threats and human security risks including migration and food insecurity. These challenges threaten the stability and security of the Middle East, North Africa, and Sahel region, as well as the international system as a whole.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated instability and insecurity along NATO’s southern flank. As Ana Isabel Xavier, Portugal’s Secretary of State for National Defence, noted, disruptions in the supply chain have triggered food shortages and price increases that have exacerbated food insecurity. Similarly, energy prices have soared, affecting countries already struggling economically. Over the past two years, Russia has systematically exploited these vulnerabilities, exploiting linkages with state and sub-state actors across the Middle East and Africa to sustain its war in Europe while undermining Western interests in regional stability. Russia’s relationships with these countries allow it to bypass Western sanctions, acquire military equipment, and procure critical raw minerals and other valuable resources needed for its war economy. 

Members were told that the West has not engaged sufficiently in these regions, leaving a vacuum that has been partly filled by China and Russia. Teresa De Almeida e Silva, Professor at Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ISCSP), noted that Russia primarily focuses on military engagement with the region and leverages its historical ties by supplying Soviet-era equipment to African nations. Paulo Portas, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of National Defence of Portugal, argued many African countries still depend on Russian military equipment, while their political parties maintained relations with Russia after the break-up of the Soviet Union. So-called private Russian militias, like the Afrika Korps (formerly the Wagner Group), maintain a significant presence in Libya and the Sahel, and essentially operate on behalf of the Kremlin. To support its operations and undermine Western interests, Russia employs a vast disinformation network that obfuscates the nature of its ambitions in Africa.

For its part, China has a more pragmatic and transactional approach to the region that relies upon  economic leverage rather than military power. In Africa and the Middle East, China fosters economic dependencies and enhances its bargaining power through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the strategic infrastructure investments it makes through that program. In this context, Ms. De Almeida e Silva noted China is now the largest trading partner for MENA countries. China’s growing naval presence along the southern flank is also deeply concerning, and Allies will need to continue monitoring China’s naval ambitions in the region. 

Countries in the Global South are now seeking to balance their relationships with Russia, China, and the West. Esterline Gonçalves Género, Ambassador of Sāo Tomé e Principe in Portugal, suggested that countries like his own do not wish to choose between East and West, but rather seek to benefit from maintaining positive relations with all powers. In May, São Tomé e Príncipe signed a security agreement with Russia, but Ambassador Gonçalves Género stressed that cooperation continues with Portugal. Several Portuguese speakers argued that Allied countries need to be sensitive to the aspirations of these countries and where possible should be prepared to offer cooperative security assistance to counter Russian and Chinese influence. 

Along these lines, Ana Santos Pinto, the former Chair of the NATO Independent Group of Experts on the South, suggested that NATO needs to review its strategic approach to these regions and urged Allies to deliver on promises and build back trust with partners across the southern neighbourhoods. She highlighted the need to better coordinate the engagement of Allies, NATO’s international staff, and the military with the southern partners. 

The Alliance should also better leverage networks like the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP). Representatives of the CPLP told the delegation that the linkages the group fosters help counter mounting isolationist and protectionist sentiments across the globe. The CPLP helps participating countries identify shared values and interests, accommodate cultural differences, and do so in a manner that respects equality and sovereignty. The CPLP can also help counter Russia and China’s destabilising influence in Africa and build a platform to encourage common approaches to terrorism.

Maritime Security and the Role of the Portuguese Navy

Conflict in the Black Sea and persistent tensions in regions such as the Arctic, the South China Sea, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Red Sea have placed maritime security at the centre of Allied security discussions. Admiral António Silva Ribeiro, Former Chief of the General Staff of the Portuguese Armed Forces, told the delegation that NATO’s Maritime Strategy demands an increased naval presence in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, improved maritime information and surveillance systems, expanded training and joint exercises, and support for partners seeking to enhance their own maritime capabilities. Maritime security, Admiral Silva Ribeiro argued, is not simply an absence of threat, but also demands regional resilience and development. 
At the Lisbon Naval Base, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, Chief of the Naval Staff of Portugal, briefed parliamentarians on the global role of the Portuguese Navy and the threats Allies confront in the maritime domain. With its strategic position in the heart of the Atlantic, Portugal views the  threats to NATO’s south through a unique lens and plays a key role in promoting collective security for both Allies and partners. Admiral Gouveia e Melo noted that Portugal’s Naval presence in the Gulf of Guinea seeks both to enhance regional stability and provide assistance to partners. The Admiral stressed that defending the sea-lines of communication and maintaining global connectivity should be a high priority for Allies, particularly as revisionist actors like Russia seek to undermine Allied resolve by any means possible. 
At the Lisbon Naval Base, parliamentarians discussed Portuguese Naval support for NATO’s maritime transformation efforts though initiatives like the Robotic Experimentation and Prototyping Maritime Unmanned Systems (REPMUS) Exercise, which tests unmanned systems and enhances interoperability. 

The visit concluded at the Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO (STRIKFORNATO), which is the only command component of the NATO Force Structure capable of leading an expanded maritime force. In a briefing to the delegation, Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Craig Wood CBE explained that STRIKFORNATO can leverage maritime deep strike capabilities and amphibious forces to provide strategic capability. This enables the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) to enhance defence and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic space. Allies are now transferring capabilities to STRIKFORNATO, and Deputy Commander Wood noted that Italy, Spain, Türkiye, and France had recently contributed personnel and further capabilities to the command. But while maritime challenges mount, only fifteen Allies currently participate in STRIKFORNATO. Deputy Commander Wood appealed to Allies to step contributions given the importance of STRIKFORNATO’s mission and the current international security environment.  

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