If Vladimir Putin had been looking for a not-so-secret agent to assist him in his mission to cause unrest in Europe, it is unlikely he would have thought his principal accomplice would be Emmanuel Macron, president of France. 

After Macron called a surprise, and risky, general election following the strong performance by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the European Union elections in June, the first round of the French vote took place on 30 June. It resulted in a near-triumph for Le Pen who looked capable of winning the second round of voting on 9 July. Le Pen’s ascendency in France would be a gift for Putin, who would love to see the European Union in disarray.

But in an act of unusual solidarity, spurred by the necessity to keep RN out of government, in a matter of days the left-wing forces had rallied against the flag-waving Le Pen and just about managed to drown her out. The National Rally was relegated to third place in the second round of voting, allowing Macron to claim a victory of sorts and thus justify his call—which had been opposed by many in his party— for an early election.  But while his actions have spared control of the French legislature from the grip of Le Pen, France’s government—the second largest and in some eyes the most important nation within the European Union—has been left in chaos.  No party or individual leader has a majority.

The left wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France (LFI), won 182 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.  The four-party alliance, made up of LFI, the Socialists, Communists, and Greens, is likely to see much internal squabbling in the weeks ahead as they jostle for leadership. Ensemble, Macron’s centrist coalition, held on to 168 seats, down from 250 in the outgoing parliament, but far short of the 289 seats needed to control the lower house. Le Pen’s RN came in third with 143 seats, a big jump from the 88 the party held in the outgoing parliament, but a disappointment to Ms Le Pen who hoped for a majority and to see her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella become the next prime minister.

Based on these numbers, a moderate coalition government, one excluding the hard right, could be formed, but France—unlike Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium—has little culture of political compromise or coalition-building. In the words of one centrist deputy, such an outcome is “Mathematically possible; politically, highly improbable.”  His opinion rings true. Hours after the results came in, speaking on behalf of the left-wing NFP alliance which has no single leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon dismissed the idea of negotiations and declared that the NFP would form a government and “apply its programme and nothing but its programme.”

The morning after the inconclusive second ballot, Le Parisien newspaper published a photo of Emmanuel Macron with a furrowed brow beneath the headline “Et maintenant on fait quoi?” (Now what do we do?). The same day, Macron confirmed his current centrist prime minister, Gabriel Attal, to stay on in the job in a caretaker role. We can only hope that more level-headed members of NFP alliance are more flexible than Mélenchon seems to be, and that Macron can either bring them into a governing coalition or find a way to work alongside a minority left-wing government; a prospect which few commentators or politicians would have bet on a week earlier.

What are the ramifications of all this for Europe and the European Union? With the Social Democrat leadership of Europe’s most powerful country, Germany, still vacillating over its future direction, and France in a shambles, Europe and the European Union find themselves in worrying times. There is relief, of course, that Le Pen will not form a government—at least not for a few years—given her opposition to the EU, but the EU itself has got to chart a path into the future, one which can give its 448 million citizens hope and reward them for their continued support and loyalty.

The good news is that Ursula von der Leyen has clinched the nomination to serve a second term as president of the European Commission and seems likely to win over a majority of the European parliament’s 720 MEPs who will vote this month. She has been an outstanding and resilient leader and will be helped by the decision to appoint Antonio Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister, as president of the European Council, putting him in charge of finding compromises between the 27 heads of state and government.

Colin Chapman FAIIA is a writer, broadcaster, public speaker, who specialises in geopolitics, international economics, and global media issues. He is a former president of AIIA NSW and was appointed a fellow of the AIIA in 2017. Colin is editor at large with Australian Outlook.

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