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A Service For Professionals Tuesday, October 24, 2017 11614 Sources 411,481,396 Articles 3,134,516 Readers
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World Economic Outlook, October 2017

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace over the past 40 years, and significant further warming could occur, depending on our ability to restrain greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with relatively hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term. Sound domestic policies and development alongside investment in adaptation strategies could help to some extent, but given the constraints faced by low-income countries, the international community must play a key role in supporting these countries’ efforts to cope with climate change.

Full Text of Chapter 3 Blog
Table of Contents and Data  
  • Introduction
  • Temperature and Precipitation: Historical Patterns and Projections
  • The Macroeconomic Impact of Weather Shocks
  • Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change
  • Long-Term Effects of Temperature Increase—A Model-Based Approach
  • Summary and Policy Implications
  • Box 3.1. The Growth Impact of Tropical Cyclones
  • Box 3.2. The Role of Policies in Coping with Weather Shocks: A Model-Based Analysis
  • Box 3.3. Strategies for Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change: Selected Case Studies
  • Box 3.4. Coping with Weather Shocks: The Role of Financial Markets
  • Box 3.5. Historical Climate, Economic Development, and World Income Distribution
  • Box 3.6. Mitigating Climate Change
  • Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Groupings
  • Annex 3.2. Weather Shocks and Natural Disasters
  • Annex 3.3. Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Weather Shocks and the Role of Policies
  • Annex 3.4. The Impact of Weather Changes and Natural Disasters on International Migration
  • Annex 3.5. Model-Based Analysis
  • Annex 3.6. Reduced Form Approach to Estimating Potential Long-Term Effects of Climate Change
  • References
  • Table 3.1.1. Characteristics of the Average Tropical Cyclone by Country Group
  • Table 3.1.2. Effect of Weather and Wind Shocks on Economic Activity
  • Table 3.5.1. Effect of Historical Climate on Current Real Output
  • Annex Table 3.1.1. Data Sources
  • Annex Table 3.1.2. Country and Territory Groups
  • Annex Table 3.2.1. Effect of Weather Shocks on Natural Disasters, 1990-2014
  • Annex Table 3.3.1. Effect of Weather Shocks on Output
  • Annex Table 3.3.2. Effect of Weather Shocks on Sectoral Output
  • Annex Table 3.3.3. Effect of Weather Shocks on Productivity, Capital, and Labor
  • Annex Table 3.3.4. Role of Policy Buffers
  • Annex Table 3.3.5. Role of Structural Policies and Institutions
  • Annex Table 3.3.6. Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data
  • Annex Table 3.4.1. Effect of Weather Shocks and Natural Disasters on Emigration, 1980-2015
  • Annex Table 3.5.1. Parameterization of the Debt, Investment, and Growth Model
Figures
Chart Data 3.1 Average Global Temperature
Chart Data 3.2 Increase in Average Global Temperature and Contributions of Key Factors
Chart Data 3.3 Temperature and Precipitation across Broad Country Groups
Chart Data 3.4 Annual CO2 Emissions across Broad Country Groups
Chart -- 3.5 Temperature and Precipitation Projections under the RCP 8.5 Scenario
Chart Data 3.6 Natural Disasters: Historical and Projected Monthly Probability of Occurrence
Chart Data 3.7 Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output
Chart Data 3.8 Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe
Chart Data 3.9 Effect of Temperature Increase on Sectoral Output Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country
Chart Data 3.10 Effect of Temperature Increase on Productivity, Capital, and Labor Input Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country
Chart Data 3.11 Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country over Time
Chart -- 3.12 Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change: A Toolkit
Chart Data 3.13 The Role of Policy Buffers
Chart Data 3.14 The Role of Structural Policies and Institutions
Chart Data 3.15 The Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data
Chart Data 3.16 Effect of Temperature and Natural Disasters on International Migration
Chart Data 3.17 Long-Term Impact of Temperature Increase for a Representative Low-Income Developing Country: Model Simulations
Chart Data 3.18 Vulnerability to Temperature Increase and Adaptation Prospects
Chart Data 3.1.1 Effect of Tropical Cyclone Exposure on Real GDP per Capita
Chart Data 3.1.2 Cumulative Effect of Average Tropical Cyclone on Real GDP per Capita after Seven Years
Chart Data 3.2.1 The Role of Policies: A Model-Based Analysis
Chart Data 3.4.1 Insurance Penetration: Non-Life Insurance Premium
Chart Data 3.4.2 Catastrophe Bond Market
Chart Data 3.4.3 Temperature Shocks and Stock Price Predictability: Food and Beverages Sector
Chart Data 3.6.1 Effectiveness of Mitigation Policies in China
Chart Data Annex 3.3.1 Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe, with Countries Rescaled in Proportion to Their Projected Population as of 2100
Chart -- Annex 3.6.1 The Long-Term Impact of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe
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