Boris Johnson has vowed to leave the EU on October 31 - with or without a Brexit deal.

And Downing Street insiders now believe crashing out of the EU without a deal to be the most likely outcome on Halloween.

MPs may try to block a no-deal Brexit by voting to bring down the government. But the Prime Minister attempted to thwart them by proroguing Parliament for more than a month.

No Deal been talked about for years.

Theresa May secured a deal which MPs then voted down three times; the EU delayed the date of Brexit twice; and now Boris Johnson will only accept a deal which strips out the Northern Ireland Backstop.

But the whole time no-deal has been the backup plan - with Theresa May committing £4billion or so, and Boris Johnson adding another £2.1 billion to the cost.

Boris Johnson is vowing to leave on October 31, with or without a deal (
Image:
Getty Images)

That includes a huge advertising campaign - costing more than £100,000 to encourage the public to prepare for a chaotic exit.

So what does it actually mean in practical terms?

If there's no arrangement in time, we'll lose 70 international trade deals in a blink, shed access to EU criminal databases and face the prospect of goods checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The government published 106 "technical notices" over 2018 and 2019 outlining the practical effects of no-deal - from driving licences to cats.

No Deal Brexit will have a huge effect on ports like Dover (
Image:
PA)

UK officials also unveiled 'day one' tariffs that would slap £1,500 on the cost of a family car from the EU - but leave 87% of goods imports, including steel, tariff free. This could threaten struggling UK industries with a flood of cheap imports, but would also prevent searing price hikes that hit your wallet in the short term.

Meanwhile ministers had 3,500 troops "held at readiness", could call up Army reserves and declare martial law. Supermarkets and pharma giants were told to stockpile food and medicine.

A lot of the effects are on business. UK farmers face a nine-month wait for approval to export organic goods to the EU. Fishermen could be blocked from EU waters. And manufacturers fear their supply chains drying up.

But businesses are not what who've written this guide for. Instead we have tried to establish 21 ways no-deal Brexit will affect you, the reader and your everyday life.

What is a no-deal Brexit?

No Deal is the default option if MPs, the EU and the UK government can't agree a Brexit 'Withdrawal Agreement' by the Brexit deadline (which has been moved three times).

The current 585-page deal, on the table since November 2018, would have ensured businesses aren't cut off by continuing rules in a 'transition period' until December 2020.

However, it came at a cost - a 'backstop' that could trap the UK in an EU customs union from 2021. That means MPs and Boris Johnson opposed it.

Mr Johnson has vowed to re-open talks on the deal, including dumping the backstop, despite the EU refusing to do so. If that fails, it leads us to a no-deal Brexit.

Leaving with no deal will mean falling back on World Trade Organisation trade tariffs - increasing the price of imports and exports - and could leave legal 'black holes' where EU law stood before.

The UK government has been ramping up preparations for no deal since the beginning of summer 2018. After Boris Johnson took power, spending on no-deal preparations topped £6billion.

What is Boris Johnson's plan for no-deal Brexit?

Boris Johnson wants a "managed no deal". We look at what happens if it fails (
Image:
PA)

Plan A (officially) is to renegotiate Theresa May's original, 585-page Brexit deal and come out with a deal on October 31.

Plan B is to leave with no deal, but get a "standstill" arrangement from November 1 onwards to prevent crippling new tariffs.

Plan C (which is reportedly now Plan A) is to leave with no deal and no standstill arrangement.

Experts say Plan B in particular is complete fantasy land. Boris Johnson claims he can use Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT 24) to stop new tariffs springing up.

This is called a "managed no-deal" - arranging lots of "mini-deals" to help smooth the path of leaving the EU.

But GATT 24 says a "plan and schedule" must already be in place to form a customs union or free trade area, "within a reasonable length of time". That doesn't include a no-deal Brexit .

What does the government's financial watchdog say about no-deal Brexit?

no-deal Brexit would trigger a year-long UK recession in just a few months' time, the government's official spending watchdog predicted in July 2019.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said a recession would begin in the final three months of 2019 if the UK leaves without agreement on October 31.

The pound would drop in value instantly by 10% - while unemployment would rise by more than a quarter.

GDP would fall 2% by the end of 2020, around the same as the early 1990s recession and a third of what was seen in the 2008 financial crisis.

In all no-deal would add about £30billion a year to government borrowing from 2021, the OBR said - or, put another way, £577million a week.

That in turn would hike the UK's net debt by 12% of GDP by March 2024.

Despite the drastic findings, OBR forecasters said their stress test was "by no means a worst-case scenario".

21 ways no-deal Brexit could hit you

NOTE: This information was gleaned mainly from government no-deal preparedness documents and advice over the last year. Some of these situations may be avoided if there is a "managed" no-deal.

1. Martial law could be imposed with thousands of troops on standby

More than 3,000 troops are being "held at readiness" (
Image:
AFP/Getty Images)

More than 3,000 troops are being "held at readiness" in case there is a disastrous no-deal Brexit.

Army reserves are also legally able to be called up if there is civil unrest, while councils are braced for possible runs on banks, fuel and food.

Local Resilience Forums are reporting back to Whitehall and expect several months of disruption if there is no deal.

The government has plans in case it needs to impose martial law - military law - and curfews to restore order.

Cabinet minister Matt Hancock admitted the plans existed but insisted the government was "not specifically" looking at martial law and it was "not the focus of our attention".

2. You need to renew your passport early

Passports entering the EU would have to be at least six months in date (
Image:
Getty Images)

At the moment, British citizens can enter 'Schengen area' countries with a valid passport even if they only have a day left before they expire.

But in a no deal Brexit, after 31 October 2019 you may not be able to travel to these countries if you have less than six months left on your passport.

The government is advising travellers to renew any passports older than nine years and six months. (less for young children).

Usually this means renewing six months before your passport expires. But if your passport had more than 10 years' validity, you'll have to renew earlier, because the extra months on top of 10 years don't count.

The following are members of the Schengen Agreement: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.

3. Pet owners must visit the vet FOUR MONTHS before a holiday

Currently dogs, cats and ferrets can travel anywhere in the EU - no more (
Image:
Getty Images/EyeEm)

There is a huge surge in red tape for pet owners who want to take their beloved animals abroad.

Currently dogs , cats and ferrets can travel anywhere in the EU as long as they have a "pet passport".

The main requirement is that three weeks before the first visit, owners must go to the vet to have their pet vaccinated against rabies and microchipped.

But in the worst case no-deal Brexit, pet owners must visit a vet at least four months before taking their pet the EU. And because talks are ongoing, that means you'd better book in now.

The animal must have a rabies vaccination followed by a blood test at least 30 days later, to prove the vaccination worked.

Pet owners must then wait at least three months before visiting the vet to obtain a health certificate.

But this cannot be done more than 10 days before the date the holiday starts. 

4. KFC and other big names could run out of food - and water supplies could be affected

Big brands including KFC, Sainsbury's, Co-op and Lidl warned they could all run short of some fresh foods (
Image:
REUTERS)

Food is being stockpiled for if we crash out of the EU without a deal, and ministers have promised an "adequate supply". 

But that's not the same as having the range of food we do now. Leaked plans in December warned Brits could have to "vary their diet". 

And in January, big names KFC, Pret, Lidl, Co-Op, M&S, Waitrose, Sainsbury's, Asda and McDonald's signed a damning letter warning food supplies could run short because of disruptions to the supply chain.

They wrote in a joint letter to MPs: "Our ability to mitigate these risks is limited.  

"As prudent businesses we are stockpiling where possible, but all frozen and chilled storage is already being used and there is very little general warehousing space available in the UK." 

They added: "Retailers typically store no more than two weeks' inventory and it becomes difficult to restock stores if the supply chain is disrupted."

Leaked preparations under the government's Operation Yellowhammer warned some fresh food stocks will be affected and hundreds of thousands of people will be hit by problems with water supply.

While there will not be overall food shortages, a combination of factors “will reduce availability and choice and increase the price”. Poorest families would be worst hit and “there is a risk that panic buying will disrupt food supplies”.

There is also a warning of a “failure in the chemicals supply chain” for water. “The likelihood of this is considered low, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Urgent action may need to be taken to make sure people have access to clean water.”

5. You could lose your job

A string of firms have either moved jobs out of the UK or are threatening to do so (
Image:
Getty Images Europe)

A string of firms have either moved jobs out of the UK or are threatening to do so in a no-deal situation.

Airbus, which employs 14,000 people in the UK with around 110,000 more jobs in supply chains, warned it may move elsewhere.

Car plants are moving forward standard shutdowns to be around Brexit in case there are supply chain issues.

And critics fear new investment will not come the UK's way, hitting jobs in generations

More jobs could be lost due to oil refineries shutting down according to the Operation Yellowhammer document (see above).

Petrol supplies could be hit, oil refineries could shut and 2,000 workers lose their jobs.

Panic-buying could create shortages, such as those seen during the 2000 fuel crisis.

The briefing says: “Traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution in the local area, particularly if traffic queues in Kent block the Dartford Crossing, which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South East.

“Customer behaviour could lead to shortages in other parts of the country.”

Strikes over job losses at refineries could unleash disruption for two weeks.

6. Your motorway commute faces becoming a lorry park

The M20, M26 and M3 are all hit (
Image:
Newcastle Chronicle)

UPDATE: After the October extension was agreed, Highways England deactivated Operation Brock "until further notice".

You can find the latest updates here.

Major motorways in the South of England are set for serious disruption in case of a no-deal Brexit.

From 'early 2019' the M20 (coastbound) will be closed as needed from junctions 8-9, with a contraflow of both directions on the opposite side, so it can be used as a lorry park if there is gridlock at Dover.

A backup lorry park will be in place at Manston Airport.

The M26 in Kent is also expected to be used as a holding area for lorries.

And a similar fate could befall a 13-mile stretch of the M3 towards Southampton.

The Treasury's additional £2.1 billion no-deal Brexit fund, announced in early August 2019, includes more cash to improve transport infrastructure around the Kent coast.

The leaked Operation Yellowhammer document also warned Lorries using Channel ports may not be ready for French customs checks.

It says: “The lack of traders’ readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold HGVs could reduce [traffic] flow rates to 40%-60% of current levels within a day.

“The worst disruption might continue for three months before flow rates rise to 50%-70%, although disruption could continue for much longer.

“The French might act to ensure some flow through the crossings. HGVs could face a maximum delay of one and a half to two and a half days to cross the border.”

7. Millions of plane tickets could be cancelled

"Basic connectivity" will be "maintained" for a 12-month period, but that's it (
Image:
GETTY)

UPDATE: In March 2019 the EU and UK agreed in principle to an reciprocal arrangement which would keep planes in the air for a year after the original exit date of 29 March 2019 even in a no deal scenario. It's unclear whether this will now apply for a year after 31 October.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warn up to 5million plane tickets could be cancelled if there is no deal.

Currently it is not known exactly which tickets could be hit, or how passengers would find out if they are at risk.

The situation arose because in a 'no deal', there will be no automatic legal basis for flights between the EU and UK after 11pm on 29 March 2019.

Under a pact struck between the UK and EU in December, "basic connectivity" will be "maintained" for a 12-month period if there's no-deal.

But according to the IATA - which represents 290 airlines including British Airways - that only means maintaining the number of flights in 2018.

It does not allow an increase in services - yet tickets have already been sold based on a predicted increase.

Talks are ongoing, but Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, previously warned flights could be grounded if "goodwill" fails.

8. You'll find it harder to drive in the EU

Under a no-deal Brexit, you are set to need an International Driving Permit (
Image:
A. Bailey/ Wiki Commons)

Currently a UK driving licence is the only thing visitors need to get behind the wheel on the continent.

But under a no-deal Brexit, you should get an International Driving Permit.

The £5.50 documents were due to be sold at 2,500 post offices from February. Before they were sold at fewer than 100. The number of permits issued would have to soar from 100,000 a year to 7million.

Meanwhile you will also be forced to apply for a 'green card' to prove you have the right car insurance.

The certificates are free of charge and available from insurance companies.

But the government warns firms may increase administration fees in order to cope with the extra bureaucracy.

Those who forget their green cards would be forced to buy expensive "frontier" insurance in the country they are visiting.

9. Up to a million Brits may be forced to take a new driving test

If expats don't exchange licences for local ones by March, a new test may be needed (
Image:
PA)

British people driving in Europe could be forced to take a new driving test if there's a no deal Brexit.

Up to a million Brits living in Europe were told to replace their driving licence with a local permit immediately.

Guidance issued by the Department for Transport said: "If you are a UK licence holder living in the EU or EEA you should exchange your UK driving licence for a local EU driving licence before 29 March 2019.

"From that date, in the event that there is no EU Exit deal, you may have to pass a driving test in the EU country you live in to be able to carry on driving there."

10. If you're an EU citizen, you'll have fewer rights to stay in the UK

EU citizens will still be allowed to stay in the UK - but the rules will be tighter (
Image:
PA)

More than 3million EU citizens living in the UK will have less concrete rights to stay.

Whether there's a Brexit deal or not, EU citizens can stay in Britain if they register for "settled status" with the government.

But the rules are stricter in a no-deal Brexit.

In no-deal, only EU citizens arriving before October 31 can apply, not those arriving by December 2020.

The deadline to apply will be 31 December 2020, instead of 30 June 2021 if there is a Brexit deal.

And family members will only be able to join settled EU citizens in the UK before 29 March 2022.

As for the other way round - major EU nations have individually said they'll allow UK ex-pats to stay, but this could vary by country.

And the rules could become stricter, with Home Secretary Priti Patel working on a crackdown to take effect on Day One of a no-deal Brexit.

11. Pharmacies and hospitals could start rationing medicine

There are plans to fly in medicines to treat millions of patients if there's no deal (
Image:
PA)

Pharmacists have requested special powers to ration medicines if there is no Brexit deal

Under plans by the Healthcare Distribution Association, they would have special powers to vary doctors' prescriptions and offer something else if a drug is unavailable.

37 million packs of medicines are imported to the UK from the EU every month, and the NHS is preparing for a doomsday scenario to prevent supplies running dry.

Government and NHS chiefs have set up a "war room" called the 'Operational Response Centre' and industry firms are creating six-week stockpiles of medicine.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock chartered a plane to fly in short-shelf-life products, like isotopes for cancer treatment, from Maastricht. Insulin could also be stockpiled.

Mr Hancock claimed he'd become the biggest buyer of fridges in the world, after fitting out facilities for storage of the crucial drugs.

NHS staff are being "directed" to urge patients not to stockpile medicines personally to avoid shortages throughout the system.

The Operation Yellowhammer document warned: "While some products can be stockpiled, others cannot because of short shelf lives. It will not be practical to stockpile six months’ supplies.”

Three-quarters of drugs arrive via Folkestone and Dover, making them “particularly vulnerable to severe delays”.

Medicines for diabetes, some leukaemia treatments and flu vaccinations must be transported under temperature controls.

“Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices. This can include limits on transit times.”

The leaked document also warned social care could be hit by rising inflation - leaving operators facing collapse within months.

“The adult social care market is already fragile because of the declining financial viability of providers.

“An increase in inflation after the UK’s EU exit would affect providers of adult social care through increasing staff and supply costs and might lead to failure within two-three months for smaller providers and four-six months for larger ones.

“Intelligence will be gathered to prepare for effects on the sector, including closure of services and handing back of contracts that are not part of the normal market function.”

12. Your mobile phone roaming charges may be hiked

Costs were cut in June 2017, but there'll be no legal guarantee in future (
Image:
iStock Editorial)

Mobile roaming charges face an immediate hike if there is a no-deal Brexit, the government has confirmed.

Tory ministers are revoking the EU law which guarantees UK citizens pay the same for using their phone on the Continent as they do at home.

That will leave mobile phone firms free to hike costs whenever they like after the UK leaves.

Guaranteed free roaming launched across the EU just 20 months ago - and meant big savings.

But that guarantee will be scrapped if there is no deal, thanks to an obscure law laid before Parliament.

13. You should get insurance and flexible tickets for Eurostar 'disruption'

The government has told international train passengers to make sure they have "insurance and ticket terms and conditions" that are "sufficient to cover possible disruption" (
Image:
REX/Shutterstock)

Eurostar services could be suspended in a worst-case no deal Brexit.

The government has told international train passengers - including the Eurostar - to make sure they have "insurance and ticket terms and conditions" that are "sufficient to cover possible disruption".

That implies passengers should buy FLEXIBLE tickets - not the fixed cheap ones that are popular for their low cost.

The UK will need bilateral deals with France, Belgium and the Netherlands to ensure international trains keep running.

Without such a deal, Britain has proposed recognising EU operator licences until March 2021 to ensure services can continue. But this isn't guaranteed, and UK operators would have to reapply with the EU.

The EU has agreed to keep permissions for services like the Channel Tunnel open for three months if there is no-deal, while a new agreement is negotiated. But there aren't guarantees.

Former Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis claimed "the vital train link between Britain and Europe could be severed."

14. You might have to go through airport security twice

Love airport security? Then Brexit Britain is the perfect country for you (
Image:
Getty Images North America)

Air passengers changing flights in the EU may have to undergo two security screenings under a no-deal exit. 

Travellers boarding a plane in the UK to fly to a European airport, before changing flights for an onward destination, would be screened in Britain as they are now. 

But they might have to have a second check in the EU before getting their connecting flight. 

“Currently passengers flying from the UK and transferring at an EU airport for an onward flight do not have to be re-screened at that EU airport, because the UK applies, and exceeds, the EU baseline aviation security measures,” says a Department for Transport briefing note. 

“If there is no deal, and the EU decides not to recognise the UK aviation security system, then passengers and their luggage will have to be re-screened when changing flights in EU hub airports.” 

15. You could be barred from using Netflix and Spotify on holiday

"Online content service providers will not be required or able to offer cross-border access to UK consumers" (
Image:
Getty)

Britons could be barred from accessing their accounts for Netflix, Spotify and other online entertainment while travelling to EU states if there's a no-deal Brexit.

Under the EU-wide "portability regulation", which took force in April, citizens can access accounts set up and based in one country while visiting other member states.

But a government technical notice said: "The portability regulation will cease to apply to UK nationals when they travel to the EU.

"This means online content service providers will not be required or able to offer cross-border access to UK consumers under the EU Regulation.

"UK consumers may see restrictions to their online content services when they temporarily visit the EU."

16. If you live in Northern Ireland, you face electricity blackouts

Urgent new powers may be needed "to preserve security of supply" (
Image:
PA)

Northern Ireland will be forced to take drastic measures to stop the lights going out.

A worst-case no-deal Brexit would scupper the all-island electricity market shared by Northern Ireland and the Republic - leaving it "without any legal basis".

This would make both markets "less efficient, with potential effects for producers and consumers on both sides of the border," the government warns.

And it "may be necessary to seek additional [legal] powers to preserve security of supply."

To stop the lights going out, Northern Ireland would have to take more electricity from British power stations through an "interconnector" running under the Irish Sea.

But Northern Ireland's Transmission System Operator "may need to rely on fall-back arrangements" to ensure power keeps flowing, the government warns.

That is why, even if there's a no deal, the government will "take all possible measures" to keep the all-island market running. There has been talk of barges in the Irish Sea.

Dustin Benton of Green Alliance warned: " Any emergency action to keep the lights on, both in Northern Ireland and across the rest of the UK, would likely be highly polluting and expensive."

17. You could be stranded on your package holiday

Package holidaymakers could be left stranded with no legal protection (
Image:
REX/Shutterstock)

Package holidaymakers could be left with no legal protection if the firm they booked with goes bust.

Currently Brits have "insolvency protection" if they book with a package holiday provider that's based anywhere in the EU.

But in a no-deal Brexit, that protection would only apply if the firms are "targeting" the UK market. That means those booking with, say, a cheaper Spanish firm online that has no UK presence could be unprotected.

Even if the UK government could act, in practice it will be much harder to take enforcement action against foreign firms because other countries will no longer recognise UK courts.

And the leaked Operation Yellowhammer document warns passengers travelling to and from the EU may face more immigration checks.

“UK citizens travelling to and from the EU may be subject to increased immigration checks at border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Channel Tunnel and Dover, where border controls are juxtaposed.

“Depending on what plans EU member states put in place to cope with these increased checks, it is likely delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports. This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes.”

18. You'll lose rights to take action over dangerous products

Consumer rights we enjoy now will disappear for goods bought from the EU (
Image:
Getty Images)

Government documents reveal the same problem - UK courts not being recognised - will strip Brits of their consumer rights for EU goods bought online.

Alex Neill of consumer group Which? warned: "A no-deal Brexit would massively weaken people's rights to take action when they purchase faulty or dangerous products from outside the UK.

"The Government's advice that we all become experts in international consumer law is hopelessly unrealistic.

"Securing a good deal with the EU is vital to ensure that Brexit doesn't result in a bonfire of consumer rights and protections.”

19. Your cigarette packets will change

This is what the new-look UK cigarette warnings will look like (
Image:
Getty Images)

Graphic warnings on cigarette packets will be replaced by Australian versions in a "no-deal" Brexit.

And in some ways they are even more gruesome than the ones we have now.

The grim pictures show a foot ridden with peripheral vascular disease, a clogged artery, a bleeding brain and high-resolution teeth stained black.

The photos will be changed in a no-deal Brexit because the European Commission owns the copyright on ones we currently use.

That means the UK would be unable to use them after 31 October 2019.

20. If you're going through a family breakdown, you could be trapped in limbo

The UK will cease to be part of co-operation between EU family courts (
Image:
iStockphoto)

Families who are midway through divorce or child custody cases involving another EU country could find themselves trapped in limbo.

If there’s a no deal Brexit, the UK will cease to be part of co-operation between EU family courts on 31 October 2019.

Instead the UK will fall back on legal conventions drawn up in The Hague. But these are complicated and do not cover every area of the law.

The government has advised families with ongoing cases to seek legal advice if they will not finish by Brexit Day.

A government technical note says: "Broadly speaking, cases ongoing on exit day will continue to proceed under the current rules.

"However, we cannot guarantee that EU courts will follow the same principle, nor that EU courts will accept or recognise any judgments stemming from these cases.”

21. Your everyday medicines and perfumes could become more expensive

A licence will be required to trade "precursors" to over-the-counter medicines (
Image:
Getty Images)

Currently, popular ingredients in cold medicines can usually be traded within the EU without a licence. In a no deal, a licence will be required to trade these so-called "precursors".

So if we leave without a deal, firms who want to trade such chemicals with the EU will have to register with the Home Office, which can cost between £109 and £3,665.

They will also need an import/export license, which costs £24. Critics say this could push up prices for consumers in the shops.

Similarly, cosmetics firms will be slapped with more red tape to prove their products are safe for human health.

Currently they can use one legal “nominated person” to certify a product for the whole EU market.

But if there’s a no deal Brexit, UK checks won’t be recognised in the EU - and EU checks won't be recognised in the UK. That means two sets of checks.

Labour MP Owen Smith claimed drug giants will look to "pass on the costs".

And finally... your regular caviar parties are doomed!

Awful, terrible news for the establishment (
Image:
REUTERS/Guy Faulconbridge)

Caviar imports will be snarled up or stop completely in a no-deal Brexit.

Sturgeon eggs join snowdrops, orchids and reptiles in 'endangered species' that would need import and export permits to cross an EU border.

You'd only be allowed to bring in 125g of caviar for personal use.