Here’s how moderate women in Indianapolis suburbs may decide Indiana Senate race

Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly (left) wraps up a debate Monday with Republican Mike Braun in Westville.

Donna Cracraft has been voting for Republicans for decades, but she's growing increasingly worried her party no longer represents her views. 

Concerned that Republican candidate Mike Braun has tied himself too closely to the far right and President Donald Trump, the 70-year-old Zionsville resident plans to cast a ballot Nov. 6 for Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly.

She's among a group of Republican-leaning suburban voters, especially women, whose crossover votes could determine the outcome of Indiana's tight race for U.S. Senate, political experts say.

"I have a lot of good friends who are cradle Republicans like I am," said Cracraft. "We have said we are no longer Republicans, but we don't say we are Democrats. I'm a citizen without a party."

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In the era of the #MeToo movement, many moderates are troubled by the incivility and vulgarity they say Trump has shown. They think the religious right, tea party and social conservatives have hijacked the GOP, leading to Trump's election, and forcing hard-line stances on nuanced issues such as immigration, abortion, gun control, climate change and gay rights. 

While there's no doubt the counties surrounding Indianapolis still will swing Republican, Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly is trying to reach moderate voters like Cracraft and her friends, arguing he embraces their concerns for fiscal conservatism and offers a more pragmatic approach on social issues.

Republican Mike Braun (right) speaks during a U.S. Senate debate in Westville.

"Donnelly doesn't need to get all of those Republicans to change their mind," said Robert Dion, a political science professor at the University of Evansville. "He just needs to get some and all of a sudden it's a new ball game."

Braun is working to protect that turf, connecting with voters and bringing in big-name Republicans to the suburbs to bolster his chances.

Suburban battleground

Donnelly opened his first campaign field office in April in Carmel and he's held more than 60 events in Indy's suburbs, including launching his "Women for Joe" constituency group. 

In a poll taken last month before Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed, Donnelly was on pace to win the same percentage of voters, or more, in Indy's suburbs that he won six years ago in defeating embattled Republican Richard Mourdock — an encouraging sign for the Democratic incumbent.

In 2012, some crossover voters swung to Donnelly after Mourdock said during a debate that rape was "something God intended." Donnelly won the statewide election because Mourdock's winning margin in the suburbs was less than what a Republican typically needs to carry the state.

Richard Mourdock, during his campaign for U.S. Senate in 2012.

Donnelly hopes he can make that happen again, and the September poll bolstered those hopes. Braun led Donnelly 52 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in Indy's suburbs, according to the Sept. 5 NBC News/Maris Poll. While Braun was leading, his share of support was less than the 54 to 55 percent of the vote that Mourdock won in the city's largest suburbs in 2012.

"If those doughnut counties fail to deliver their traditional Republican vote totals, that could hand the Senate (seat) to the incumbent," Dion said. "There's every indication that women and suburban voters are not one-sidedly Republican. They're giving more and more of their votes to the Democrats."

Braun is actively defending what's traditionally been reliably Republican territory, working to keep suburban voters in his camp. George W. Bush held a fundraiser for Braun last Monday in Carmel and Donald Trump Jr. will be rallying for him this Monday near Greenfield.

Braun is reaching voters like Marla Ailor, 46, Westfield. She said she was impressed by his down-to-earth demeanor when she met him at a GOP event in Hamilton County. She likes his business background and support of the president, whom she credits for the strong economy. 

"I like his Hoosier values," she said of Braun, "I like that he's a businessman, even though I know he's been in politics. He does not present himself as the entrenched politician." 

Braun's campaign said his message is resonating with suburban voters. 

"Suburban voters care about what all Hoosiers care about: good-paying jobs, quality affordable healthcare, and a strong border for a safer America," said spokesman Josh Kelley. 

The Trump effect 

Donnelly is hoping to hold onto Republicans who cast ballots for him in 2012 and reach more crossover voters. 

While Trump won Indiana by 19 percentage points, he struggled to reach white-collar, educated voters in Indy's suburbs, especially affluent Hamilton County

Consider this: Trump carried 56 percent of the vote two years ago in Hamilton County, ten percentage points fewer than Mitt Romney won in 2012. The drop was clearly aimed at Trump as down ballot Republicans still won more than 70 percent of the vote.

President Donald Trump introduces Mike Braun, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate from Indiana, during a rally that drew in excess of 7,000 people to North Side Gymnasium, Elkhart, May 10, 2018. Trump and Pence are in town to campaign for midterm elections this Fall.

Trump also under performed compared to Romney and down ballot Republicans in the next three most populous suburban counties — Boone, Hendricks and Johnson. Trump's working-class messaging helped him equal or exceed Romney's vote totals in the more rural and sparsely populated Hancock, Morgan and Shelby counties.

At the time, some conservatives said they refused to vote for Trump because they had deep concerns about his then proposed ban on Muslims entering the country, his plan to build a wall along the Mexico border, and accusations of sexual assault and vulgar comments against women.

Andy Downs, political science professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne, said there are blocs of voters who are uncomfortable with the president, largely based on his personality. 

"I think that certainly has helped turn some of those counties into a possibility with the Democrats," Downs said. 

That's a problem for Republicans, who have counted on wide margins of victory in the suburbs to offset the more heavily populated urban areas of the state like Indianapolis and Lake County that lean heavily Democrat.

Indy's densely-populated and fast-growing suburbs are a significant chunk of the statewide vote. Two years ago, 423,406 voters in Indy's suburbs cast a ballot in the presidential election — far more than the 370,498 who live in blue-leaning Marion County.    

Donnelly's campaign is working to cut into the traditionally large Republican lead in those suburban counties. 

"Joe has worked hard to listen to voters in every corner of the state, including the suburban counties around Indianapolis," said campaign spokesman Will Baskin-Gerwitz. "Joe's looking forward to continuing his bipartisan efforts on behalf of Hoosiers in the Indy suburbs and every corner of Indiana when he's re-elected next month."

Is Trump a liability in the suburbs?

Braun won the Republican primary by convincing voters he was the most Trump-like candidate, but pundits say that's hurting him with more moderate voters in the general election. 

Donnelly has taken a different strategy with more wriggle room, saying he votes for Trump when the president is with Hoosiers. He voted with Trump 62 percent of the time last year. 

Hitching a candidacy to Trump in Indy's suburbs is a mixed back. Likely voters there are evenly split on their view of Trump: 48 percent have a favorable view of the president and 48 percent have a unfavorable opinion, according to the Sept. 5 NBC News/Maris Poll. 

Carmel resident Denise Hannon, 57, refused to vote for Trump and, after hearing Braun's pro-Trump campaign pitches, won't vote for him either. 

Hannon said she's concerned by the president's lack of civility and polarizing nature. 

"I'm not a Donald Trump supporter, and I won't vote for a candidate who stands lock step with the current administration," she said. "Joe Donnelly is more aligned with my views when it comes to certain issues, particularly LGBT rights." 

On the issues:Where Indiana's U.S. Senate candidates stand on religious freedom and LGBT rights

Voting records:What you need to know about Joe Donnelly's and Mike Braun's records on abortion issues

Chris Douglas, 53, an Air Force veteran and investment manager who lives in Washington Township just south of the Hamilton County border, worries Braun is against immigration, will continue deficit spending, will govern based on religion, won't address climate change and would support tax cuts that benefit the wealthy while slashing Medicare and Social Security.

Douglas worries that the GOP is becoming anti government instead for limited government. He said he's grown tired of the "mindless jabber jawing of the right wing" and plans to vote for Donnelly. 

"He's a fairly conservative Democrat," Douglas said. "I am sorry, but we have to have effective government regulations — not too much regulation and not too little either."

Douglas unsuccessfully lobbied this summer for the state party to soften its stance on traditional marriage. When the measure failed, he quit the Republican platform committee. Braun was against softening the party's stance on marriage.

"I did my best to push for progress for a platform that is inclusive of all Hoosiers," he said. 

Many Republicans will stick with the GOP candidate, of course. Carmel resident Michelle Krcmery, 39, said she thinks Braun is the more conservative candidate and finds Donnelly's record to be inconsistent. 

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"I intend to vote for Mike Braun due to his stances on fiscal issues," she said. "I consider the current rate of government spending and the growing debt as cause for concern. "

Other voters see the direction of the Republican party as further reason to stay away. 

Zionsville resident Sarah Stackhouse Mead, 53, once considered herself a solid Republican. 

That ended around the time Sen. Richard Lugar lost his primary in 2012. She voted for Donnelly and plans to do so again.

"I voted straight Democrat in the last election," she said." I haven’t seen any forward motion on any of the #MeToo movement from any of the Republicans."

Other Republicans simply won't vote in the Senate race. 

Home builder Paul Estridge, 60, Westfield, said he supported Congressman Luke Messer during the primary and has been discouraged Braun is tying his campaign to Trump. 

"I don't like these guys who are jumping on Trump's cape and trying to get a ride with him, as opposed to standing up for themselves," Estridge said. "I couldn't bring myself to vote for anybody in that (2016 presidential) election. And I see Braun as a Trump-like guy. I don’t think that’s the direction we should be going, as true conservatives."

Kavanaugh hearings deepen divide 

While there's no doubt Kavanaugh's confirmation energized the Republican base, some moderate voters — especially women — saw his confirmation as more cause for concern. 

Pundits think Donnelly could get a boost from key voting groups, such as women and suburban voters, after opposing Kavanaugh's confirmation. Donnelly was undecided until Dr. Christine Blasey Ford testified Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when they were in high school. 

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh defends himself before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday.
  Pool photo by Erin Schaff
Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill, Thursday.

In a Fox News poll released in early October following Kavanaugh’s testimony, 48 percent of likely female voters said they plan to vote for Donnelly, compared to 37 percent who plan to vote for Braun. 

That’s a switch from a Fox News poll released in September when 41 percent of women planned to vote for Donnelly, compared to 46 percent for Braun.

That's worrying for Republicans because more women than men vote, and they've already been increasingly voting for Democrats. In 2012, 55 percent of women voted for Hillary Clinton, compared to 45 percent of men. 

Pollster Christine Matthews posted on Twitter that surveys have shown the #MeToo issue is "very important" and "motivating" to millennial women and she thinks the Kavanaugh hearings may motivate more to vote. 

Some of those voters opposed Kavanaugh because they feared he could help the high court overturn abortion rights granted by Roe v. Wade. But the power of Donnelly's appeal to those voters could also be diluted by his own opposition to abortion except in cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother. 

Jen Smith, 49, Daleville, is among the women who think Kavanaugh's impassioned denials made him look out of control. Smith, who works in technical support and sells antiques, doesn't think she could get away with acting like that in a professional setting. 

"There is no way I could go into an office setting and act that way and have any person agree with me," she said. 

She's also grown concerned that the Supreme Court could end abortion rights by overturning Roe v. Wade and end same-sex marriage by overturning Obergfell v. Hodges

"I was very upset when (Justice Anthony) Kennedy stepped down," she said. "He's a conservative, but I also believed he gave everything a fair shake. I don't know what they'll do with things like abortion and gay marriage with Kavanaugh there."

Other voters weren't upset by Kavanaugh's confirmation. Far from it. 

Erica Strahm, 45, Westfield, thinks Donnelly lost the race when he voted against Kavanaugh. Strahm said she saw no concrete evidence to corroborate Ford's testimony.

She thinks Kavanaugh had a right to be angry about the accusations. 

"With (Donnelly) voting no against Kavanaugh," she said, "I think his re-election chances are dead."

Time will tell which side is right. 

Call IndyStar reporter Kaitlin Lange at 317-432-9270. Follow her on Twitter: @kaitlin_lange.

Call IndyStar reporter Chris Sikich at (317) 444-6036. Follow him on Twitter: @ChrisSikich and at facebook.com/chris.sikich.