Informing humanitarians worldwide 24/7 — a service provided by UN OCHA

Colombia

Latin America and Caribbean Report N°67 - Risky Business: The Duque Government’s Approach to Peace in Colombia

Attachments

Executive Summary

Colombian President-elect Iván Duque hails from a political party, the Democratic Centre, that spearheaded a fierce campaign against the hard-won 2016 peace agreement with the guerrilla Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Duque and his party promise to “modify” the accord. Precisely how they will do so remains unclear, given that aspects of the deal are enshrined in law or enjoy considerable support, particularly in rural areas hard hit by half a century of conflict. The FARC agreement may not be perfect, but it has ended Colombia’s decades-long battle against its largest guerrilla movement and offers the best path to peace in rural areas. If the government obstructs rollout of the deal or starves the responsible bodies of funds, it could spark renewed violence, hinder the extension of state authority and legal economic activity to long-neglected peripheries, fuel the growth of illicit armed groups and, over time, impede the sustainable reduction of drug production.

After a polarising election season, Iván Duque won a presidential run-off by 54 per cent to 42 per cent for a left-wing candidate, Gustavo Petro (the remaining 4 per cent were blank votes). After his victory, Duque stressed the need to bridge the country’s conspicuous social and ideological divides, but the result has stirred considerable anxiety over the future of the FARC peace agreement. Duque’s right-wing party is led by former President Álvaro Uribe, who led a vociferous No campaign against the agreement in an October 2016 referendum, in which the Colombian public rejected the deal by a wafer-thin margin. Though the accord was later adjusted and approved by Congress, Duque and his party have promised to amend it once in office.

Interpretations of what this pledge means for the agreement diverge starkly. Duque’s supporters and party insist that they will correct flaws in the deal, notably the “impunity” it allegedly offers FARC members and the subsequent proliferation of armed groups and boom in coca cultivation. Duque’s comfortable majority in Congress, where some of the legislation needed to carry out the peace accord is still pending, puts him in a strong position to steer the deal’s fate in a direction he and his supporters prefer.

On the other hand, Duque’s critics, many of them from the Colombian left, fear the demolition of the agreement, arguing that the new president – under his political godfather Uribe’s aegis – has no interest in preserving it and would rather lead the country back to war. But this prognosis underestimates the many incentives for the government to persevere with the agreement’s main tenets, notably the rising public support and strong international backing it enjoys. It also exaggerates Duque’s ability to scrap the accord, given that parts of it have been enshrined into Colombian law.

The incoming administration appears more likely to offer conditional backing to a few, specific aspects of the accord, while withholding political and financial support from newly created agencies charged with rolling out key reforms. Though the transitional justice system for crimes committed during the war has been approved by Congress and begun to operate, the Duque government could invigorate probes into crimes allegedly committed by former combatants after the 2016 accord and try to give ordinary courts, rather than the special mechanism in the peace deal, a greater role. It could try to reorient the plans FARC leaders agreed to regarding the reintegration of their fighters, moving away from former guerrillas’ preferred model for their transition to civilian life. It might take steps to curtail the political representation of FARC leaders, though such steps would likely run into protracted legal challenges.

Perhaps most perilously, the new government might be tempted to repeal the rural reforms outlined in the peace deal, which appear to contradict its predilections about the Colombian countryside. The accord promises support for small farmers and landless labourers who were long the main victims of conflict; Duque may instead pursue policies friendlier to agri-business. Rural Colombians would likely regard such a reorientation as confirmation that the state is callous. Together with the military campaign, Duque has pledged to tackle burgeoning coca cultivation and expansion of armed groups, but the reversal of rural reforms could further alienate small farmers and labourers and nudge them into the armed groups’ embrace.

That said, Duque could be constrained by both Colombia’s domestic politics and its international relations. The strong performance of Petro, a staunch supporter of the peace deal who qualified for the run-off, together with an aggregated vote total of over 51 per cent in the first round for candidates who firmly backed the deal, suggests that public backing for the agreement has strengthened. Duque’s expected closeness to the U.S. might harden his stance on aspects of the peace deal related to the voluntary substitution of coca crops. His party’s abhorrence of the Venezuelan government will count against it continuing talks with another guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), which has entered negotiations with the current Colombian government but uses Venezuela as a safe haven with the acquiescence of authorities in Caracas. Still, strong backing for the peace agreement from the UN Security Council, the European Union and other Latin American states, the presence of a UN mission in the country, and a civil society dedicated to saving the accord could all act as a brake on any effort to ditch it.

Despite his party’s tough stand, President Duque should resist calls from his allies to take a hardline approach toward the deal. His government should:

  • Continue to work alongside the FARC’s leadership in the National Reincorporation Council, the body responsible for developing plans to reintegrate former guerrillas and, ideally, permit ex-FARC cadres their preferred reintegration model of collective, cooperative businesses rather than individual schemes;

  • Leave intact and properly fund agencies responsible for carrying out the peace deal’s provisions on rural development, notably the National Agency for Land and the Agency for Territorial Renewal;

  • Honour without exception the agreements signed by rural communities to substitute coca for other crops;

  • Continue to promote laws and efforts to demobilise illegal armed groups, including transitional justice mechanisms that respect victims’ rights; and

  • Tone down the preconditions it currently threatens to impose for the continuation of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict with the National Liberation Army (ELN).

Supporters of the peace deal, notably the FARC itself, Colombian civil society and the political opposition, should keep open lines of communication to Duque and do everything within their power to persuade him and his party of the agreement’s merits. They should stress the clear business and security benefits the deal can bring to Colombia’s countryside, while pointing to the real danger of a regional, cross-border escalation of violence and the further growth of drug trafficking and other armed groups should it – and the ELN talks – collapse. For their part, FARC leaders, especially those who will take seats in Congress, can help protect the transitional justice system by actively participating, telling the truth and apologising for their crimes.

The FARC peace deal may not answer all of Colombia’s security challenges. But the deal still provides a clear opportunity to address the inequality and underdevelopment in rural areas that underpin much of Colombia’s violence. Attempting to derail the deal or adopting policies that impede its aspirations, on the other hand, would likely herald greater instability, hinder the return of state authority to Colombia’s peripheries and, over time, fuel violence and drug trafficking. President Duque should avoid taking the country down that path.

Bogotá/Brussels, 21 June 2018