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Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: September 2017 Update (Issued October 23, 2017)

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Highlights

Inflation:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable (4%) in Northeast and declined mildly (3%) in the Southern regions but increased mildly in Central and Northwest (30%) in September 2017 month-on-month.

The CPI rose (8-20%) annually due to increases in cereal prices.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable or changed mild rates against USD in most regions of the country during September 2017. Annual comparison mostly exhibited mixed patterns, with SoSh mildly gaining value (less than 10%) in Central, Sorghum Belt and Juba regions; while moderate depreciations (12%) were recorded in Northeast regions due to recent printing of local currency notes in the regions.

SISh-using areas: The SISh depreciated mildly (3%) against the USD in September 2017 month-on-month while year-on-year comparison indicates high depreciation (of 32%) due to increased supply of newly printed local currency notes and a decline in the availability of USD due to reduced livestock exports and export revenue.

Local cereal prices changed at mild rates (less than +/-10%) in most of the Northern and Central regions while Southern regions mostly recorded declines month-on-month in September 2017 as a result of increased market supply from the new (Gu 2017) harvest in the surrounding rural areas.
Annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in most regions of the country attributable to reduced supply due to poor successive harvests except in Juba valley where cereal prices exhibited decline (16%) due to improved harvest compared to a year ago.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (less than +/-10%) in local currency terms in September 2017 across the country. Similarly, year-on-year comparison indicates mild increases or decreases in most regions of the country for most of the food imports in September 2017. However, most of the food imports in Middle Shabelle and Bay declined moderately (17-27%) compared to a year ago (September 2016) due to relatively better security situation that enabled increased supply/distribution of food imports.

Livestock prices for local quality goat and local quality camel exhibited mild changes (less than +/-10%) in most regions of the country month-on-month in September 2017. Compared to a year ago (September 2016), most regions exhibited increases in goat and camel prices except Central and sorghum Belt which showed price declines (14-20%) due to deterioration of body conditions ( Bakool,
Hiran and Gedo regions). Milk prices (camel and cattle) exhibited mild changes in most of the regions of the country month-on-month in September 2017. On the other hand, milk prices increased from moderate to high levels when compared to last year in most regions of the country due to less milk supply as a result of the current drought.

Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (by less than +/-10%) month-on-month in most of the regions of the country in September 2017. Similarly, compared to a year ago (September 2016), mild changes (by less than +/-10%) were recorded in most regions of the country with the exception of Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba and Banadir. Labor rates increased (18-29%) in Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba as a result of increased agricultural activities in Middle Juba and increased political activities in Middle Shabelle; while in Banaadir the labor rates declined (25%) due to increased labor competition.

Terms of Trade (ToTs) between daily labor wage and cereals remained relatively stable or changed mildly (by 1-2kg of cereals/daily labor wage) in most regions of the country month-on-month in September 2017. Annual comparison indicates lower ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions due to declines in labor wages and/or increase in cereal prices; exception is Middle Juba where the ToT increased by 6kg per daily wage due to decrease in cereal prices and increase in labor wage. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals mostly increased from mild to moderate levels in most regions of the country month-on-month due to declines in cereal prices and/or mild increases in goat prices. Compared to a year ago (September 2016), the ToT between goat and cereals were lower in most regions of the country; exception is in Middle Juba where the ToT increased by 68kgs of cereal per goat compared to a year ago due to lower cereal prices and higher goat prices this year.