BJP dominance squeezes Opposition, on Gujarat street, refrain once again is for ‘jaisa chal raha hai’

Surat part of a larger story

Surat may not be an incidental setting for the contest that turned into a no-contest. It is the bastion of BJP president C R Paatil, a third-term MP from the adjoining constituency of Navsari, known not to conduct a campaign as it is defined conventionally.

Paatil makes a point of not asking voters for their vote, takes pride in not addressing election sabhas or meetings. No hoardings or posters are put up in his name — because, it is said, he presides over a well-honed system of election “micro-management”, in which the public outreach is micro-data-driven, below the surface, silent and systematic.

At the BJP meeting in Mehsana. (Express File Photo)

The story goes that in 1992, when he fought a corporation election, he began by compiling voter data by asking a question, armed only with a telephone directory: Who will you invite to a wedding in your family? Paatil became party president in 2020 — this is his first Lok Sabha election as state BJP chief.

Surat is politically eye-catching for another reason. It is here that the newbie party, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, first raised its head in Narendra Modi’s state, winning 27 seats in the municipal corporation elections 2021. In assembly elections the very next year, it won five MLAs and about 13 per cent of the vote share in Gujarat.

Since then, the AAP challenge was seen to be visibly deflated, not just because the Patidar agitation for reservation that was seen to bolster it settled down, with its leading light Hardik Patel joining the BJP, but also because 15 of the AAP corporators and one of its five MLAs left the party and joined the BJP — two corporators returned to the AAP, 13 are still in the BJP.

Dharmendra Vavaliya, one of the AAP corporators who switched to the BJP, now says: “Josh mein aaye the (we joined AAP with only enthusiasm on our side). We are small people, we don’t have back-up, AAP had no organisation here. We worked hard to get people’s work done… BJP mein toh setting se ho jaata hai (while things get managed by the well-oiled BJP machinery).”

AAP flash in the pan — and alliance worries

Most of AAP’s candidates were nowhere to be seen after they lost, says Vavaliya, but even in the BJP, he does not like what he sees. “BJP doesn’t want there to be any contest at all,” he says, pointing to its Surat candidate’s unopposed election. “This is not vikas (development), there is so much corruption. People of Surat are not impressed, they can see Switzerland on Google,” he says.

Vavaliya is an example of the “outsiders” imported in growing numbers by the BJP in a bid to squeeze the Opposition space. In the last three months, according to a highly placed BJP source, “60,000” Congress and AAP members have joined the BJP, passing through its newly set up five-member “screening committee”.

Not all of these imports have adjusted to their new surroundings, some like Vavaliya are saying it openly. The new recruits are also sparking resentments among the old-timers, taking a toll within the BJP — after taking over as party president, Paatil had declared the BJP’s doors closed for Congressmen, but was overruled by the high command of his party subsequently.

In a restaurant off the Bharuch-Vadodara National Highway 64, Gopal Italia, AAP’s joint general secretary, who describes himself as part-time lawyer and full-time politician, tells The Indian Express that he is taking four days off from the campaign to take a law exam. On the dwindling visibility of the AAP’s first flush in Gujarat, he says: “It is because our people come from ordinary, not rich or resourceful backgrounds. Making an organisation is a continuous process…”

Of the original 182 AAP Vidhan Sabha candidates, two were “kidnapped”, some crossed over to the BJP, many are part-time politicians, some went back to personal responsibilities. “They lost interest in politics,” he says.

Part of the AAP challenge in the Bharuch seat — one of the two seats it is fighting on, in alliance with the Congress — is to introduce the candidate: “Chaitar Vasava was elected an MLA in 2022, but a Lok Sabha constituency is large, not everyone knows him. That was his first election anyway. We tell the people about the persecution he has faced by the BJP,” says Italia. Now on bail, Vasava has been booked in a case of alleged assault on a forest officer, as a result of which for over three months he could not set foot in his constituency.

The AAP has joined forces with Congress in Surat to appeal against the Returning Officer’s decision to disqualify the Congress candidate, but it has barely concealed disdain for its ally’s organisational capabilities. On the impact of Rahul Gandhi’s nyay yatra, which passed through Bharuch, says Italia: “Don’t ask about yatra impact, ask what Congress leaders and cadres did after that.”

Asking for more — but ‘Modi does the work’

Congress does not seem to be reciprocating AAP support on the Surat matter in political kind, at ground level, at least not visibly.

At the joint Opposition rally held in Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan, top Congress leaders shared the stage with AAP to denounce the arrest of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the ED. But in district headquarter Vyara, where Rahul’s nyay yatra made a halt, the father-son Congress duo of Amarsinh and Siddharth Chaudhary — the father is a former MLA and MP, the son is fighting this election from the tribal constituency of Bardoli — deny that Kejriwal’s arrest is an issue, as they rock gently at home on a traditional swing.

“You ask the AAP people (on Kejriwal’s arrest),” says Siddharth. “Yahan pe issue hi nahi hai (it is not an issue here).” The Congress will win, they say, because the people have understood they have made a mistake, the people have tired of the BJP.

Given the BJP will to dominate, in a state of visible development and visible polarisation, a Congress that is steadily leaking into the BJP when it is not passing on the task of defeating it to the people, and an embattled AAP, it is not surprising perhaps that a majority of the people The Indian Express spoke to on the Gujarat street said: “Jaisa chal raha hai (let the present dispensation go on)” — even as they expressed particular discontents and specific anxieties.

In Songadh taluka of Tapi district, tribal activist Deepak Gamit says that this time, the BJP’s “400 paar” slogan has stirred up worries: “(Christian) tribals fear that they will do away with Article 25, the right to freedom of religion.”

“Land is being taken away from tribals because of the design of projects in the BJP regime… how can they be trusted not to change the Constitution to bring in ek rashtra, ek dharam (one nation, one religion), if they can change even a CM overnight,” says Pinabhai Manilal Gamit, in a village in Vyara’s fringe. And then, both say, there is price rise or mehengai.

But in village Moti Naroli in Surat district, Rakesh Balwan, also a tribal, says that while the Modi government is not working for the poor, he cannot vote elsewhere — because “Hindu ka raj khatam ho jayega, musalman raj aa jayega (Hindu rule will come to an end)”. Modi has controlled the bomb blasts, he says, and the terrorists.

In the same village, a group of Rajputs articulate their anger against Parshottam Rupala, the BJP’s Rajkot candidate, who has made a controversial statement about their community — while swearing loyalty to Modi. “Modi is Ram, Amit Shah is Hanuman, Rupala is Meghnad… Modi is Amitabh Bachchan,” says Ranjitsinh Vasi.

If the so-called Kshatriya rebellion against the BJP sounds more like a lover’s tiff, many young voters also mostly give the benefit of doubt to the BJP.

Outside Surat’s Kavi Narmad Central Library, Maarisha Khetan says that she worries that “democracy kam ho rahi hai (democracy is shrinking), a sitting CM has been arrested… To keep the powerful accountable, competition should be healthy”. But, she says, “Modi has made a place for himself, there is no alternative.” She counts out BJP “achievements”: “PM awas, foreign policy, a better face of India abroad, Ram mandir”.

“I was too young when Congress was last in power, and Kejriwal is in jail, how will he run a government,” says Palak Asopa. “BJP is misusing power, but the BJP is also working,” says Sukoon Khetan, who talks admiringly about “Yogi ji, Amit sir, and Modi ji”.

“I went to visit the Statue of Unity and for me it represents how jobs can be created by private sector companies,” says Mahendra Singh Bhandari, who studies at Bharuch’s KJ Polytechnic.

In village Juna Chhapra, also in Bharuch, a flood came in September 2023, and devastated 20-25 homes overnight. “Last time I voted for the BJP, now I don’t care,” says Bhavnaben Vasava, whose home was one of those ravaged by the waters. Says Sureshbhai Vasava, “I want change, but I cannot bring change on my own, and then Modi has also worked, kaam karta hai Modi.”

In a small group of small and medium scale businessmen in Vadodara city, who don’t wish to be named, the talk is about how absolute power corrupts absolutely. “What was the fault of the voters of Surat, whose right to vote has been snatched suddenly?” Corruption on the BJP government’s watch, they say, has spiked. In Vadodara, the BJP faced internal challenge, changed the candidate and gave a ticket to someone who does not belong to the constituency. “You are taking Vadodara for granted, because it is your safe seat.” And yet, the consensus is, “there is no strong option on the other side”.

In an election with no big emotive issue, and several scattered discontents, the BJP slogan of “400 paar” still evokes disbelief — it’s like the magician who says “gaadi ko gayab kar doonga, wahan se ladki nikal loonga”, says AAP’s Italia — but few give a chance to the Opposition.