Czech President-Elect Turns the Page on Populism

In the Czech Republic’s presidential election last weekend, retired Army Gen. Petr Pavel took 58 percent of the vote, overwhelmingly defeating business tycoon and former Prime Minister Andrej Babis. Pavel served as head of the Czech Army and later as chair of the NATO Military Committee, second only to the alliance’s secretary-general. He campaigned on a promise to deliver stability. Babis, who held office from 2017 to 2021, now leads the opposition ANO party and is facing an investigation on charges of tax evasion and money laundering.

Babis’s loss seems to follow a tide turning against global populism, including the defeats of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa. As prime minister, Babis mishandled the Czech Republic’s COVID-19 crisis and became known for his soft spot for authoritarian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The combined effects of the pandemic and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine seem to have boosted voters’ desire for some stability.

In times of peace, countries can generally cope with populist leaders for one or two terms, but such leadership becomes problematic in the face of overlapping crises. With Pavel’s victory, the Czech Republic shows that a truth-based campaign against populism can win. His presidency could mark a shift in Czech politics.

The president’s office will now come back into alignment with the center-right government’s policies. Importantly, Pavel also plans to focus on the grievances of those who voted for Babis. And for allies in the European Union and beyond, the Czech Republic now faces a chance to become a very reliable partner.

Pavel has the potential to turn the page. As a former military leader, he can appeal to people more easily than political elites. The Czech Army is now one the country’s most trusted institutions, whereas the public tends to doubt politicians. Before taking office, Pavel plans to travel to poor regions home to Babis’s support base and discuss possible solutions to structural social and economic problems, such as affordable housing shortages, limited job opportunities, and low levels of education. These regions include areas along the Czech Republic’s border with Germany and Poland, where the expulsion of the German-speaking population after World War II left long-lasting scars.

After graduating from the Czech military academy in 1983, Pavel joined the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia and led an airborne reconnaissance unit. He enrolled in intelligence training in 1988 but only performed the job later under democratic governance. Although his history with the Communist Party may have weakened his candidacy, it didn’t turn out to be decisive. Pavel’s broad support may indicate that the Czech Republic has reconciled with its past, especially given his 30 years of service to democratic governments.

Pavel rose quickly in the military ranks after the end of the Cold War, winning the French Legion of Honor for leading a unit that rescued 53 French soldiers under siege by Serbian troops in Croatia in 1993. His accession to the presidency is a clear sign of the rehabilitation of the Czech Army, which once had a reputation as an enabler of the communist regime. Pavel’s post-1989 commitment to liberal democratic values personifies the Czech Army’s transformation into a valued ally within NATO and a respected force at home.

Pavel’s military experience quickly came up during the campaign, as Russia’s war in Ukraine became a key election issue. Early on, Babis called the retired general a warmonger and called for peace in Ukraine—mirroring both Orban and former U.S. President Donald Trump. Babis also hinted at a plan to organize a peace summit at Prague Castle and went as far as saying he wouldn’t agree with dispatching the military if Russia attacked the Baltic states or Poland. (Hours later, he walked this statement back, adding that he would honor the obligations of NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense.)

The Czech president doesn’t make decisions about the country’s military engagement, which is left to the country’s government. Pavel called only for continuing Prague’s support for Kyiv to avoid further aggression from Moscow that could come even closer to the Czech border. Nonetheless, democratic forces elsewhere should pay close attention to future Czech presidential contests, as Russia’s war in Ukraine will certainly appear as a key issue in future elections. A divisive campaign like Babis’s might work in a different context—such as neighboring Slovakia, where early elections are expected this year.

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Under Pavel, the Czech Republic will further solidify its position as Central and Eastern Europe’s liberal democratic stronghold. His election is bad news for Orban, who will become further isolated as he loses allies Babis and Zeman. In an unprecedented gesture, Slovak President Zuzana Caputova traveled to Prague to congratulate Pavel on the day of his election, suggesting potential for synergy between the two countries—at least until the Slovak parliamentary elections. Poland also expressed satisfaction with Pavel’s election, given his stated support for Ukraine.

Pavel won’t bring much change to the Czech Republic’s posture toward Russia. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Prague has been among Kyiv’s top supporters, including with weapons shipments. (The Czech Republic was the first country to deliver tanks, attack helicopters, armored vehicles, and rocket launchers to Ukraine.) One of the president-elect’s first calls to foreign leaders was with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. Pavel will become active in coordinating with allies on aid to Ukraine; he and Caputova already discussed a plan for a joint visit to Kyiv in the spring. On Wednesday, Pavel told the BBC that Ukraine should join NATO “as soon as the war is over.”

One should expect some adjustment to the Czech Republic’s position on China and Taiwan. The Beijing-friendly Zeman laid obstacles like government efforts to recognize Taiwan’s economic importance on the one hand and condemn China’s human rights record and aggressive foreign policy on the other. Pavel is already showing his colors: On Monday, he spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. (China promptly condemned the call. Czech diplomats have reiterated that Prague’s China policy remains the same.) Pavel also tweeted that he hopes to meet with her in person, and the speaker of the Czech Parliament, Marketa Pekarova Adamova, is planning an official trip to Taiwan in March.

Pavel is pro-Europe and knows Brussels well, both from his time as a Czech deputy military representative to the European Union and later as NATO Military Committee chief. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the president-elect both a European and an Atlanticist, according to Kolar. The two leaders are likely to build on previous contact from when von der Leyen was Germany’s defense minister. When it comes to participation in summits, the current division of labor will likely continue: Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala will attend EU leaders’ meetings and Pavel will attend NATO summits, unless they agree otherwise.

Finally, Pavel will certainly energize the Czech Republic and the wider region’s trans-Atlantic ties. During his military career, he worked alongside U.S. colleagues, including serving as a national military representative to U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida. He can also rely on the friendship and advice of several U.S. generals, such as retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. forces in Europe.

With Pavel’s election, Czech allies are getting a predictable partner. He isn’t the kind of politician making promises that he can’t keep but rather a leader who will follow through on his commitments. Czechs now have three years without major elections, and the president and Parliament appear to be aligned on liberal democratic values—presenting a unique opportunity to become a regional anchor. Although Pavel may be a less dramatic president than his predecessors, that could be a positive thing in a parliamentary republic, reflective of a government working as it should.