John Deere Classic odds, projections: Expect birdie-fest in Illinois

It was a Sunday to remember for Xander Schauffele, who celebrated his wedding anniversary by picking up his first win on tour since 2019.

Of course, the other storyline to emerge from The Travelers was Sahith Theegala’s double-bogey on the 72nd hole, costing himself a chance at a victory.

Now, the PGA Tour heads to Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, a par-71 measuring just under 7,300 yards. Leading the way on the odds board are Webb Simpson (+1200) and Adam Hadwin (+1600). After that, there’s a decent drop-off to Denny McCarthy and Theegala (+2500), Brendon Todd (+2800), and Charles Howell III (+3000).

But, before we dive into our best bets for the week, we’ll begin as is custom with our key stats and statistical modeling strategy for the event. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s model.

John Deere Classic odds and projections

Stat #1 – Fairways Gained (13 percent emphasis)

All odds for this article are provided by BetMGM

TPC Deere Run, much like TPC River Highlands last week, features narrow fairways with very penal rough.

According to datagolf.com, the missed fairway penalty at TPC Deere Run is 0.4 strokes. That qualifies this track as the eighth-highest missed fairway penalty among the regular tour stops and only 0.06 strokes behind TPC River Highlands.

For that reason, players will need to hit fairways in order to have a chance to score at this setup. Plus, there’s a decent correlation between hitting fairways and winning this event. In two of the last three tournaments, the eventual winner has ranked eighth or better in fairways gained for the week.

Here are the leaders in fairways gained across the last 24 rounds:

1. Ryan Armour (+8000)
2. Chez Reavie (+4000)
3. Steve Stricker (+6600)
4. Brendon Todd (+2800)
5. Boo Weekley (+50000)

Stats #2 & #3 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (20 percent emphasis) & Greens in Regulation Gained (12 percent emphasis)

Historically, this stat has proved crucial in deciding the winner of the John Deere Classic.

Three of the last five winners have ranked inside the top-10 in strokes-gained: approach for the week, with two of those three ranking third or better for the week. Additionally, outside of putting, datagolf.com rates this metric as the single most important when it comes to finishing position correlation at a 57 percent clip.

The greens here are also smaller than the average tour stop at 5,500 square feet on average and require more pinpoint accuracy than the average stop. Per fantasynational.com, the GIR percentage here is 71 percent compared to 65 percent on average for the tour season.

Plus, there’s further correlation with success when it comes to the latter stat. All of the last four winners have ranked 15th or better for the week in GIRs gained while two of the last five have ranked third or better.

Given it has a higher emphasis, here are the 24-round leaders in SG: approach entering this week:

1. Adam Svensson (+4000)
2. Webb Simpson (+1200)
3. Nick Taylor (+6600)
4. Shawn Stafani (+40000)
5. Lucas Glover (+5000)

Stat #4 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats: Putting – 5 to 10 feet (4 percent emphasis), Putting – 10 to 15 feet (6 percent emphasis)

Historically, this course provides little resistance to players when it comes to scoring.

Dating back to the 2012 John Deere Classic, the highest final score of any winner has been -18. In that same timespan, six of the nine winners have reached -20 for the week with two of the remaining three getting to -19.

As a result, players will need to have a strong historical record of gaining birdies on the field in order to have a chance here. Somewhat expectedly, two of the last three winners here have led the field in this metric for the week while four straight have ranked inside the top-10 in birdies or better gained.

Plus, only six holes have historically played over par, so there are widespread opportunities for players to score, hence the strong emphasis.

As for the putting, it’s worth mentioning the difference in emphasis mainly because of the historical record. The last four winners at this event have ranked first, fourth, 11th, and first in putting from 10 to 15 feet. In those same four events, only two winners ranked 10th or better in putting from five to 10 feet.

Here are the leaders in this category over the last 24 rounds:

1. Adam Svensson (+4000)
2. Lanto Griffin (+6600)
3. Cameron Davis (+4000)
4. Charley Hoffman (+12500)
5. Brandon Hagy (+30000)

Stat #5 – Bogey Avoidance (10 percent emphasis)

I wasn’t expecting to include this stat when I constructed the statistical model, but there’s evidence suggesting a correlation with success.

The last three winners at this event have ranked T-11th, first and second overall in bogey avoidance for the week. Plus, just in last year’s John Deere Classic, all of the 10 players who finished ahead of winner Lucas Glover in bogey avoidance finished inside the top-47 with all but one finishing inside the top-35.

For that reason, I have no choice but to include this metric, which includes an added benefit. Given this course surrenders birdies with ease, bogey avoidance could be crucial when it comes to avoiding negative scores and keeping strong rounds going.

Here are the leaders in this metric over the last 24 rounds:

1. J.T. Poston (+5000)
2. Chez Reavie (+4000)
3. Jason Day (+3300)
4. Lanto Griffin (+6600)
5. Andrew Putnam (+8000)

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Stats #6 & #7 – Strokes-Gained: Par 5’s (10 percent emphasis) & Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (10 percent emphasis)

There are three Par 5’s on the TPC Deere Run scorecard, all of which are incredibly easy to birdie.

Those three holes — numbers two, 10 and 17 — rank amongst the four easiest holes on the course with numbers two and 17 representing the two easiest holes on the course. Just those two holes have surrendered a historical birdie rate of at least 40 percent and a historical eagle rate of at least 2.5 percent.

That said, players don’t need to rely on birdies on those holes as a function of their winning score. The last two winners at this event — Glover and Dylan Frittelli — played the par 5’s to -4 and -8, respectively.

That brings us to the Par 4’s, of which there are 11 at TPC Deere Run. Unsurprisingly, there’s a strong correlation between Par 4 Efficiency and winning — three straight winners have led the field in this category.

Further, seven of those 11 holes have historically played under par, two of which have historically played at least 0.1 strokes under par. As a result, players will need to be incredibly efficient on these holes to have a chance at winning.

Here are the leaders in each metric over the last 24 rounds:

SG: Par 5’s

1. Sam Ryder (+12500)
2. Robert Streb (+15000)
3. Cameron Percy (+15000)
4. Lanto Griffin (+6600)
5. Doug Ghim (+5000)

SG: Par 4’s

1. Lanto Griffin (+6600)
2. J.T. Poston (+5000)
3. Ryan Armour (+8000)
4. Cameron Davis (+4000)
5. Adam Long (+3300)