Orange City University’s playoff hopes took a sharp turn for the better late Tuesday after the Florida High School Athletic Association released its latest postseason projections.
The Titans, who entered their district game at Seminole ranked 15th in the Class 8A, Region 1 point totals, climbed into the eighth and final spot in the projected playoff bracket by winning 28-21 and adding nearly four points to their FHSAA formula average.
Four district champs per region in Class 5A through 8A are guaranteed playoff berths. They’ll be joined by four wild card qualifiers based on the points system, which factors in wins and losses for teams and their opponents.
All four playoff spots per region in Classes 1A through 4A are decided by the points.
Here are some intriguing scenarios heading into Friday’s Week 9 games. Numbers in parenthesis signify average points earned according to the FHSAA.
Class 8A, Region 1
Projected playoff teams: Winter Park (42.5), Flagler Palm Coast (41.7), Wekiva (40.7), Apopka (39.1), Lake Mary (38.4), Seminole (37.7), Boone (36.17), Orange City University (36.16).
Notable: Orange City University, one of three teams from District 2 in the mix, jumped ahead of Port Orange Spruce Creek (35.5) in the standings. Seminole lost an average of three playoff points to fall from fourth to sixth. Flagler Palm Coast defeated Spruce Creek 17-14 in what may decide District 1 and home field advantage in the first round. University is at Lake Mary and Boone is at Winter Park in other games that could decide district titles Friday.
Class 8A, Region 2
Projected playoff teams: Vero Beach (45.3), Osceola (44), Sarasota Riverview (39.9), Dr. Phillips (38.6), Ridge Community (37.8), Newsome (37.7), Centennial (37), Olympia (35.71), Gateway (35.71).
Notable: Olympia gained traction during its bye week, moving up two spots into a tie with Gateway thanks to West Orange defeating Apopka and improving to 4-4. The Titans defeated West Orange for their signature win up to this point in the season in Week 1. Olympia plays at Dr. Phillips this week.
Class 7A, Region 1
Projected playoff teams: Columbia (40.4), Bartram Trail (40.3), Fleming Island (39.3), Robert E. Lee (38.9), Edgewater (37.7), Tallahassee Lincoln (35.9), Gainesville Buchholz (35.7), Clermont East Ridge (35.6).
Notable: East Ridge lost 21-14 at Ocala West Port (33.8), dropping the Knights from fifth to eighth after losing nearly three points from its playoff average. East Ridge, which hosts Edgewater in District 4 Friday, is less than a point in front of Tallahassee Chiles (34.7). Hagerty (33.2) remains within striking distance at No. 12.
Class 7A, Region 2
Projected playoff teams: Viera (43.7), Lakeland (41.2), Tampa Plant (38.4), Wiregrass Ranch (39.1), Lake Nona (37.3), Gaither (36.7), Lakeland Kathleen (35), Melbourne (34.8).
Notable: Lake Nona moved up three spots to No. 5 in points after winning 34-21 over Harmony (34.6). The loss for the Longhorns drops them from seventh to ninth and opens the door for either Lake Nona or No. 10 East River (33.7) to claim the District 5 title and no worse than the No. 4 seed. St. Cloud (32.6) sits at No. 12.
Class 6A, Region 2
Projected playoff teams: Armwood (46), Vanguard (42.5), Mitchell (42.4), Hillsborough (40.7), Sebring (38.2), Gainesville (38), Chamberlain (36.8), Lake Wales (35.7).
Notable: Leesburg (35) is knocking on the postseason door after moving up two spots to No. 9 following a 47-40 over Groveland South Lake (32). Leesburg, one of four District 5 teams in the Top 10, hosts Gainesville this week. South Lake lost an average of nearly four points to fall from 10th to No. 16.
Class 6A, Region 4
Projected playoff teams: Miami Northwestern (42.5), Miami Central (40), Palm Coast Matanzas (36.5), Miami Carol City (36.5), Palm Bay Heritage (35.7), Daytona Beach Mainland (35), Miami Norland (34.7), Dillard (34.6).
Notable: Mainland is in the postseason conversation after winning a District 13 game 24-3 over Matanzas, which could help them wrap up one of the top four seeds. The Bucs added nearly four points to their average to move up four spots to No. 6. Daytona Beach Seabreeze (34.1) remains at No. 9 while New Smyrna Beach (31.5) lost considerable ground, falling three spots to No. 11. Seabreeze defeated New Smyrna Beach 14-13. Four teams from District 16 – Northwestern, Central, Carol City and Norland – are in contention entering Week 9.
Class 5A, Region 4
Projected playoff teams: Plantation American Heritage (47.4), Cardinal Gibbons (42.8), Bishop Moore (39.3), Jones (39), Coconut Creek (38.8), Rockledge (38.5), Suncoast (37.7), Merritt Island (37).
Notable: Jones defeated Bishop Moore three weeks ago in District 13, which would give the Tigers the No. 2 seed in the playoffs at this point behind District 16’s American Heritage or Cardinal Gibbons. Remaining District 13 teams Tavares (27.7), Eustis (26.9) and Poinciana (24.4) rate in the lower fourth of the 21-team region.
Class 4A, Region 2
Projected playoff teams: Dunnellon (39.7), Bradford (38.2), Trenton (34.8), Keystone Heights (32.2).
Notable: The Villages (30.9) moved up one spot to No. 5 and are now within less than two points of fourth-seeded Keystone Heights after winning 38-22 vs. No. 7 Interlachen (29). The Villages travel to Keystone Heights on Friday. Mount Dora (29.9) comes in at No. 6.
Class 4A, Region 3
Projected playoff teams: Cocoa (44.5), Avon Park (39.4), Lake Highland Prep (35.3), Cocoa Beach (34).
Notable: Things look promising for Lake Highland Prep with quality games on schedule against undefeated Lakeland Christian and The First Academy over the next two weeks. Bishop Verot (29.8) and Lake Placid (29) are the closest teams in line behind the four playoff spots in the 14-team region.
Class 3A, Region 2
Projected playoff teams: The First Academy (42.7), King’s Academy (40), Oxbridge Academy (38.4), Pierson Taylor (36.8).
Notable: Taylor swaps places with Melbourne Central Catholic (36.5) as both teams lost fractions of points last week. Taylor’s win over Hamilton County did not count towards the playoff formula because the game was a late addition to the schedule. MCC was awarded 33 total points after losing its second in a row to Maryland’s Fort Hill (7-0). Trinity Prep (34.2) remains sixth in the region after losing 57-41 to First Academy.
Class 2A, Region 2
Projected playoff teams: Victory Christian (40.2), St. Francis Catholic (38.3), Seven Rivers Christian (37.4), Zephyrhills Christian (36.8).
Notable: Foundation Academy (33.9) and Daytona Beach Halifax (30) have steep hills to climb as they rank sixth and seventh, respectively. Oak Hall (34.2) is slotted at No. 5. The final three games for Foundation come against teams with losing records, meaning points earned could be minimal.
Class 1A, Region 4
Projected playoff teams: Pahokee (38.4), Wildwood (38.3), Frostproof (37), Crescent City (36).
Notable: Wildwood could make a realistic run at the top seed in the region as Pahokee finishes the season against Seminole Ridge (6-1), Cocoa (6-0) and Glades Central (4-2). Wildwood (6-0) has faced just one team over .500 and plays three more games against opponents with a combined 9-12 record.
jcarnahan@orlandosentinel.com