Hurricane Hermine: 5 things to know as storm closes in on coast

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Hurricane Hermine was nearing the coast of north Florida on Thursday evening with winds o 75 mph. Landfall was anticipated later tonight or early Friday. (National Weather Service)

Hurricane Hermine was tracking northward across the Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida coast on Thursday. The National Hurricane Center upgraded Hermine from a tropical storm to a hurricane at 1:55 p.m. CDT.

It's been a while since Florida -- and the rest of the U.S. -- has had to deal with a landfalling hurricane.

The last hurricane to hit the U.S. was Arthur in July 2014. Arthur was a Category 2 storm when it struck North Carolina.

With speculation about Hermine and its eventual path climbing as the storm moves closer, here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. It doesn't have to be a strong storm to cause big problems

Tropical Storm Allison caused widespread flooding in the Houston area in 2001. The storm was blamed for 41 deaths. (AP file photo)

Hermine was forecast to be a minimal hurricane as it makes landfall Thursday night or early Friday in the Big Bend area of Florida.

But don't discount it regardless of its wind speed.

Smaller storms can and have been more deadly than some hurricanes -- mainly because of the copious amounts of rain they can produce once inland.

The best example of this was 2001's Tropical Storm Allison, which made landfall in southeastern Texas and unleashed four days of heavy rain which caused what the National Weather Service described as "devastating" flooding in the Houston area. The Port of Houston reported that 36.99 inches fell because from the storm.

Allison was responsible for 41 deaths and at least $5 billion in damage in the United States, making it the deadliest and costliest U. S. tropical storm on record.

Another unnamed tropical storm reportedly killed 40 people in the Mid-Atlantic region in 1889 according to the National Hurricane center.

And Tropical Storm Alberto was blamed for 30 deaths in Alabama, Georgia and northwest Florida in 1994.

2. It's not the wind, it's the water

The areas in pink will be the most at risk from storm surge as Hermine approaches the coast late tonight. The warning area has expanded southward since this morning. (National Hurricane Center)

The wind may get most of the attention, but it's water that is the real killer from tropical systems.

Storm surge is defined by the hurricane center as "an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm's winds. Storm surge can reach heights well over 20 feet and can span hundreds of miles of coastline."

Storm surge and rainfall flooding combined for 75 percent of all deaths in the U.S. from hurricanes, tropical storms or tropical depressions from 1963 to 2012.

The hurricane center cites 2005's Hurricane Katrina as a prime example of the threat of water. At least 1,500 people lost their lives during Katrina and many of those deaths occurred directly, or indirectly, because of storm surge.

Forecasters are particularly worried about the threat for storm surge along Florida's Big Bend region from Hermine.

Five to 8 feet of storm surge -- the worst-case scenario -- is possible if Hermine's approach coincides with high tide.

Emergency managers reported water was already over the docks and into the streets in part of Apalachicola just after 10 a.m. Thursday. The worry is that that is one of the first of many such reports that will be coming in today and tonight.

3. The center isn't where ALL the action is

Hermine was a lopsided storm on Thursday, with most of its worst winds and rain confined to its eastern side.

In fact, the hurricane center described Hermine as an "extremely asymmetric storm" on Thursday afternoon "with a large extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the center."

Some parts of the Florida peninsula -- far from where the center is forecast to make landfall -- have already gotten a foot of rain.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Fla., said that tornadoes will be possible, particularly to the right of the track of Hermine's center of circulation.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk of severe weather along and east of where the center is expected to come onshore.

And storm surge concerns are the greatest to the east of where Hermine's center is expected to come onshore.

4. This part of Florida doesn't get hit very often

If Hermine makes landfall in Florida as a hurricane, it will be the first time the state has been hit in 11 years. The last was Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

And the Big Bend area of Florida has dealt with hurricanes even less frequently.

The strongest most recent storm to impact the Tallahassee area was Hurricane Kate in 1985. And you have to go back another 10 years before seeing another Big Bend hurricane -- Eloise in 1975.

5. Hermine's not done once it makes landfall

Hermine could emerge back into the Atlantic

The hurricane center's long-range forecast track takes Hermine through south Georgia into the Carolinas.

And then the speculation begins. Hermine could lose its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical storm by the time it makes it back out over the Atlantic near North Carolina.

Then it could travel along the coast and get near the mid-Atlantic states, which are understandably still jittery after the devastation from Sandy in 2012.

But what will Hermine be at that point? The hurricane center wasn't ready to hazard a guess on Thursday:"Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend. It is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states."

However, forecasters noted that there was "some concern" about how Hermine would continue to evolve since wind shear was forecast to begin decreasing after 72 hours. "This could allow the system to reacquire some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, although it is not certain how close to the coast the cyclone will be by that time."

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