Wednesday marks the first day of May 2024. In Alabama, May usually means a forecast of warm temperatures with a chance of tornadoes.
What does the long-range forecast look like for May 2024?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues a variety of long-range weather outlooks that offer a window into what forecasters are expecting.
The temperature forecast for the entire month, shown at the top of this post, shows a slight chance for above-average temperatures for Alabama. The northern half of the state has a 33-40 percent probability of above-average temperatures. The southern half of the state has even better odds, 40-50 percent.
As for rain, the state is again split into two camps. The forecast for the northern half of Alabama has a 33-40 percent probability of above-average rainfall. The southern half of the state, however has equal chances of seeing either above-average or below-average precipitation.
Here’s the precipitation outlook for May:
The northern half of Alabama has a slight chance of seeing above-average rainfall over the month of May. The southern half of the state has equal chances of above- or below-average rainfall.CPC
In the near future, the CPC’s six- to 10-day temperature outlook shows a high probability (80-90 percent!) of above-average temperatures for the entire state from May 6-10:
There is a high probability of above-average temperatures for all of Alabama from May 6-10.CPC
The precipitation outlook suggests the northern two-thirds of Alabama will have near-average precipitation from May 6-10, while the southern third of the state has a 33-40 percent probability of having below-average rainfall:
Near average or even below-average rainfall will be possible from May 6-10 in Alabama.CPC
In the even shorter-term, the rest of this week is expected to be on the warm side in Alabama, with today (Wednesday) and Thursday potentially bringing some of the highest temperatures so far this year.
High temperatures today are forecast to reach the mid-80s across much of Alabama:
Here are the forecast high temperatures for Wednesday.NWS
Thursday is expected to be even warmer, and some spots could get very close to that 90-degree mark:
Here is the forecast for Thursday.NWS
WHAT ABOUT TORNADOES?
May is typically a busier month for severe weather in Alabama, coming in at No. 4 for the number of tornadoes (April is No. 1, followed by March and November):
Alabama can have tornadoes any month of the year, but typically the most active months are March and April. No. 3 is November and No. 4 is May.National Weather Service
However, the good news is that there is no severe weather in the forecast for Alabama for at least the next seven days, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
What there could be (starting on Friday and through the weekend) are chances of those typical summertime pop-up afternoon showers and storms.
Meteorological summer, by the way, doesn’t begin until June 1.