Sports News

Odds, post positions, and analysis for the 2024 Kentucky Derby

By Neil Greenberg, Washington Post

April 28, 2024

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This year’s Kentucky Derby is the richest ever after Churchill Downs announced a $2 million increase in prize money from 2023, bringing the total pur

The horses deemed most likely to cash in on the inflated purse are Fierceness, the 5-2 morning line favorite, and Sierra Leone, the second choice at 3-1. Fierceness, which will start in the No. 17 post position, is seeking to become the third Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to also win the Kentucky Derby, while Sierra Leone has to overcome the No. 2 post position, which hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 1978.

Here’s a breakdown of the field after Saturday’s earlier-than-usual post position draw.

Post time: Saturday, 6:57 p.m. Eastern

TV: NBC

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No. 1 Dornoch (20-1)

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Luis Saez

A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, Dornoch is 3-2-0 in six starts and had won three straight races – including the Grade II Remsen Stakes and Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes – before his fourth-place finish in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Gargan blamed the underwhelming performance on his colt’s arrival just two days before the race. Toss the latest outing aside and you are looking at a well-bred horse with enough speed to hit the wire first.

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No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1)

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Sierra Leone’s stock has risen quite a bit lately, but there are concerns, specifically how he was “stubbornly reluctant to load” in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 6 and then was lugging in when entering the final sixteenth of a mile. (Lugging is when a horse leans heavily to one side and has trouble keeping a straight path.) Otherwise, his pedigree is decent for the classic distance and gives Brown a good chance to break an 0-for-7 record in six runnings of the Kentucky Derby.

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No. 3 Mystik Dan (20-1)

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Mystik Dan has two wins: a 5½-furlong sprint and the Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park over a muddy track. His most recent showing, third in the Arkansas Derby over the same oval, included a note that said he “stalled a bit in the drive” but was “no match for the top two,” Muth and Just Steel. He’s a possible contender if it rains but otherwise appears outmatched.

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No. 4 Catching Freedom (8-1)

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Flavien Prat

He’s fresh off a victory in the Grade II Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, but his connections have struggled in the Kentucky Derby. Owner Dennis Albaugh is 0 for 6 and hasn’t had a horse finish better than third (Angel of Empire in 2023). Cox is 1 for 9, winning with Mandaloun in 2021 after Medina Spirit was disqualified. Prat was the rider of 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Country House – but that was after Maximum Security was disqualified for interfering with another horse. Nevertheless, this grandson of Tapit has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs with ease and should be considered a contender.

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No. 5 Catalytic (30-1)

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Catalytic, son of Catalina Cruiser, finished second to Fierceness in the Grade I Florida Derby, his third start and first stakes race. His dam, One Show Only, stems from Distorted Humor, whose progeny includes Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide, Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer, and Travers Stakes winner Flower Alley. This lineage hints at Catalytic’s potential for success in routes (i.e. longer races), with his blend of speed and stamina.

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No. 6 Just Steel (20-1)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Keith Asmussen

Just Steel is from the second crop of Triple Crown winner Justify, a group that has already produced two Breeders’ Cup winners. His second-place finishes in the Grade I Arkansas Derby and the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park are encouraging – plus he already has a win at Churchill Downs, the Ed Brown Stakes in November at 12-1 odds. Unlike Just a Touch, another son of Justify in this field, he get enough stamina from his dam side to be successful at the classic distance of 1¼ miles.

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No. 7 Honor Marie (20-1)

Trainer: Whit Beckman

Jockey: Ben Curtis

It took Honor Marie nabbing a second-place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby to secure a spot in the starting gate, but now that he’s here it’s time to take him seriously as a contender. He has the pedigree to stay the entire 1¼ miles at Churchill Downs and his latest speed figure, 99 in the Louisiana Derby, beats his career best as a 2-year-old, indicating another step forward is imminent.

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No. 8 Just a Touch (10-1)

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

On paper his pedigree looks perfect for the Kentucky Derby. His sire, Justify, won the Triple Crown in 2018. His dam, Touching Beauty, is a daughter of Tapit, whose progeny includes undefeated 2022 horse of the year Flightline plus Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit and Essential Quality. However, that stamina from Tapit doesn’t appear to be enough for Just a Touch to carry his speed 1¼ miles.

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No. 9 Encino (20-1)

Trainer: Brian Cox

Jockey: Axel Concepcion

Cox scratched his son of Nyquist out of the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes after Encino drew an outside post, pointing him toward the Grade III Lexington Stakes at Keeneland instead. It was the right move: Encino won the race and proved he could win on dirt and not just an all-weather surface, as in his two previous wins.

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No. 10 T O Password (30-1)

Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi

Jockey: Katsuma Sameshima

T O Password earned a guaranteed spot in this race by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse in March, his second career start. His pedigree is a blend of dirt prowess and versatility. His sire, Copano Rickey, excelled in dirt races (winning 13 of 24) and earned the Japan Racing Association’s award for best dirt horse in 2015. On the dam’s side, T O Rachel, a daughter of King Kamehameha (the Japan Racing Association’s best 3-year-old colt of 2004), brings the necessary stamina.

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No. 11 Forever Young (10-1)

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Bred in Japan by Northern Racing, this grandson of Deep Impact (a Japanese Triple Crown winner) won the Group II UAE Derby at Meydan. Unfortunately, that prep race is not ideal for winning on the first Saturday in May. Since 2000, 12 UAE Derby winners have entered the Run for the Roses and none have finished within the top three. The best result from any horse running in both the UAE Derby and Kentucky Derby was a fifth-place finish by Master of Hounds in 2011.

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No. 12 Track Phantom (20-1)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

The longer the distance, the worse Track Phantom performs. He finished second in the 1⅛-mile Grade II Risen Star Stakes and fourth in the 1 3/16-mile Grade II Louisiana Derby, leaving him with three wins at 1 1/16 miles. This isn’t a horse bred for the classic distance of 1¼ miles.

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No. 13 West Saratoga (50-1)

Trainer: Larry Demeritte

Jockey: Jesus Castanon

West Saratoga’s sire is Exaggerator, runner-up in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and winner of that year’s Preakness Stakes. He is also a grandson of two-time horse of the year and 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin. West Saratoga gets more stamina from his dam, Mo Wicked, a daughter of 2010 champion 2-year-old male Uncle Mo, whose best foals include Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist (2016) and Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal (2022).

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No. 14 Endlessly (30-1)

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Endlessly won the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on a synthetic surface and has yet to win on dirt despite five wins in six career starts. Still, the Ruby Steaks has been a decent prep in recent years. Last year, Two Phil’s ran second in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Ruby. Rich Strike, who won the Kentucky Derby at 80-1 in 2022, also exited the same race. If Endlessly has the opportunity to pick up the pieces from a hot pace, he could be this year’s surprise.

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No. 15 Domestic Product (30-1)

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Brown decided his winner of the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby had enough races under his belt (just two as a 3-year-old) before the Kentucky Derby and will enter the gate after an eight-week layoff. No horse since 1922 has won the Derby after a layoff of more than seven weeks.

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No. 16 Grand Mo the First (50-1)

Trainer: Victor Barboza Jr.

Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo

Third-place finishes in the Florida Derby and Tampa Bay Derby plus Deterministic deciding not to run opened the door for Grand Mo the First to sneak into the Kentucky Derby. The Uncle Mo colt should have plenty of stamina for this distance, but his speed is lacking.

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No. 17 Fierceness (5-2)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Fierceness won the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – the top race in North America for 2-year-olds – and the Grade I Florida Derby, making him the morning line favorite for Saturday’s race. Pletcher was behind last year’s favorite, Forte, before he was scratched the morning of the Kentucky Derby. Fierceness is one of the fastest horses in the field with two final speed figures above the average speed figure for a race of this caliber.

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No. 18 Stronghold (20-1)

Trainer: Phil D’Amato

Jockey: Antonio Fresu

Stronghold won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, but his pedigree is all wrong for a follow-up victory in the Kentucky Derby. His sire, 2004 horse of the year Ghostzapper, won Grade I races over distances from six furlongs to 1¼ miles, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, Stronghold’s dam, Spectator, was best at sprints and a mile just like her sire, Jimmy Creed. Hard pass here.

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No. 19 Resilience (20-1)

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

A victory in the Grade II Wood Memorial in early April could signal this son of Into Mischief is peaking at the right time. His final speed figure of 104 makes him one of two horses in the field to earn a final speed figure at or beyond that mark, which is the average winning speed figure for a graded stakes race for 3-year-olds.

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No. 20 Society Man (50-1)

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Frankie Dettori

A second-place finish in the Wood Memorial capped a three-race stretch of improving Brisnet speed figures (77 to 85 to 102), but he only broke his maiden in his prep race, his fourth career start, before hitting the board at Aqueduct. Perhaps he is a late bloomer. If so, his increased speed is a great complement to a pedigree that indicates he should have no trouble carrying that speed 10 furlongs.