Shadow of Iraq War hangs over Gulf move

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This was published 4 years ago

Shadow of Iraq War hangs over Gulf move

The history of the invasion of Iraq should weigh heavily on the minds of Australians as we once again send troops into harm’s way in the Middle East. Just as the Iraq invasion contributed to almost two decades of instability in the Middle East, there are also serious risks in Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s decision to send a vessel, an aircraft and some personnel to the Persian Gulf.

Australia will join a US-led coalition to protect shipping in the Straits of Hormuz.

Australia will join a US-led coalition to protect shipping in the Straits of Hormuz.Credit: Bloomberg

The decision has been on the cards since US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, during a visit here two weeks ago, formally made a request for Australia to join a US-led mission in the Persian Gulf to defend oil tankers, which have come under attack in recent months, most likely by Iran or its proxies. Iran has also shot down a US drone and seized a British tanker, alleging it had broken maritime laws.

Mr Morrison formally announced the deployment yesterday after receiving cabinet’s endorsement.

It is worrying that Australia is being dragged into a crisis of the US’s own making, just as it was when false claims about weapons of mass destruction led to the war in Iraq. Iran’s actions are outrageous but they are largely a response to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy of tearing up an Australian-backed deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program and instead applying ‘‘maximum pressure’’ to achieve regime change in Iran.

European countries other than Britain have declined or ignored US requests to send ships to the Gulf because they fear the presence of more US battleships will only increase confrontation and reduce the chances for a return to the negotiating table. In the Gulf region, only tiny Bahrain has promised to join the force.

As it did in Iraq, the government has tried to limit the risks for Australia by sending a force that is so small it is almost symbolic. But it is very hard to know where this will end.
Australia should make clear this is a limited mission and not an open-ended commitment to follow the US into a war with Iran. It should also try to calm the hot heads by pushing for a negotiated solution between the US and Iran. It should discourage the US from responding disproportionately to Iranian provocations.

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While there are parallels, there are also some major differences between today and 2003 that make this endeavour even less advisable in some ways than the invasion of Iraq.
First, two decades ago, the US was the global superpower with resources and influence that it could spend freely. Today, it is stretched worldwide and struggling to compete in our own region against the growing influence of China.

A major expedition to the Middle East would be an unnecessary distraction that sends Australian troops thousands of kilometres away from our shores. It is hard to see how that fits in with Australia’s defence strategy.

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Clearly, Australia is under pressure to show solidarity with the US, but one other major change from the situation in 2003 is the growing uncertainty about whether Mr Trump will truly appreciate Australia’s support. He has behaved capriciously to other traditional allies. Yesterday, he cancelled a state visit to Denmark because the Danish government had rejected his deeply weird proposal to buy Greenland.

If that is how the President treats Denmark, a NATO ally that has fought alongside the US in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, Australia must wonder what value he attaches to our efforts to curry his favour.

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