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Super Bowl LII Odds: Early Betting Lines & Picks For New England Patriots Vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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UPDATE 1/21 at 10:15 P.M. ET

The New England Patriots will play the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII. You can read more about the matchup by clicking here.

 

Super Bowl LII Odds and Viewing Guide

Odds updated 1/21 at 10:15 p.m. ET

Time (ET) Matchup (TV) Seeding Odds Total
Sunday, Feb. 4
6:30 p.m. New England Patriots Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NBC) AFC No. 1 Vs. NFC No. 1 NE -5.5 45.5

NFL Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook

End of update


After two exciting weeks, the 2018 NFL Playoffs has separated the contenders from the pretenders and now only four teams are left in the hunt for a Super Bowl LII title. The New England Patriots will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, while the Minnesota Vikings are taking to the road to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2018 NFC Championship Game. Aside from the Pats, this is certainly not the field most were expecting to partake in the NFL’s final four this year. This highlights the parity and unpredictable nature of the league, which makes it so much fun to watch—and bet.

Sportsbooks are now offering odds on every possible Super Bowl LII configuration and some of these betting lines are quite surprising. It’s worth noting that Minnesota would be favored against either AFC team if it makes it to the Super Bowl, while the Eagles—themselves a three-point ‘dog against the Vikings on Sunday—would be getting points against the same opponents. Despite this, the Patriots are still the odds-on favorite to win it all this year. Here’s a look at every possible matchup combination and the respective betting line for each, as well as the overall odds for each remaining team to claim a title in 2018:

Look-Ahead Super Bowl LII Lines

Matchup Early Line
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings MIN -6
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles JAX -3
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings MIN -1
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles NE -7.5

Super Bowl LII Championship Odds

Team Title Odds
New England Patriots +100 (1-1)
Minnesota Vikings +200 (2-1)
Philadelphia Eagles +800 (8-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +900 (9-1)

Super Bowl Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook

Oddsmakers are unsurprisingly favoring New England and Minnesota in their respective conference championship games, which directly translates to them getting the best odds to claim a title in 2018. The Patriots have made their record seventh-straight appearance in the AFC Championship contest and aren’t supposed to have too much trouble with an upstart Jags squad making its first foray this deep into January since 1999, while the Vikings and their top-ranked defense are matching up with an Eagles team missing Carson Wentz that has scored all of 34 points in its last three outings. The Pats are even money to win the Super Bowl, while the Vikings are paying $2 for every $1 bet. The Eagles and Jags are comparatively much longer shots, currently sitting at 8-1 and 9-1, respectively.

CBS Sports noted the disparity in starts between Tom Brady and the three other quarterbacks playing this weekend:

Here’s a closer look at each conference championship, including how to watch, updated odds, early picks from betting expert Jon Price of Sportsinformationtraders.com (you can check out in-depth predictions for each championship game by clicking here for the AFC and here for the NFC) and more:

2018 NFL Championship Game Odds and Viewing Guide

Time (ET) Matchup (TV) Seeding Odds Total Pick
Sunday, Jan. 21
3:05 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (CBS) AFC No. 3 at AFC No. 1 NE -7.5 46.5 JAX +7.5
6:40 p.m. Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (FOX) NFC No. 2 at NFC No. 1 MIN -3 39 PHI +3

NFL Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook

The Patriots and Vikings are the favorite to advance to Super Bowl LII, but chalk doesn’t automatically win—not even close—as both Jacksonville and Philadelphia can attest to. Both of these teams were underdogs in the Divisional Round, but outright upset their opponents to advance. The Jags beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field as a seven-point ‘dog, riding a three-touchdown performance from rookie back Leonard Fournette to beat their rival for the second time this year, while the Eagles used the betting line—which had them getting three, the first time in history that a No. 1 seed was not chalk in the Divisional Round—as motivation to shut down the Atlanta Falcons at Lincoln Financial Field. The Vikings were fortunate to have avoided becoming the third favorite to lose this past weekend, needing a "Minneapolis Miracle" to advance past the New Orleans Saints. They're projected to take care of business again this week, but this scrappy Philadelphia group won't go down without a fight.

Based on the teams remaining, a Pats-Vikings Super Bowl would be the least surprising showdown. Both clubs are well positioned to make a run to the big game and that is that is reflected in the Vegas odds. New England is practically considered a shoo-in at this point, given their historical dominance over the Jags—and the rest of the league for that matter—and 7.5-point spread. The Vikings have a bit more arduous of a journey back to Minnesota, but it’s difficult to see a scenario where Philly’s offense can put up enough points to best a squad that is favored by 3.5 points right now.

The Pats have made short work of Jacksonville during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, winning all five games since the pair rose to prominence in the early aughts. New England has scored at least 23 points and boasts an average margin of victory of almost 17 points in those contests. It’s been as one-sided a rivalry as the league has seen and that isn’t likely to change on Sunday.

The Jags vaunted defense is certainly capable of giving opposing quarterbacks fits, but it’s going to be tough for this group to shake Brady in his own digs. The 40-year-old has been as good as any quarterback out there when the rush is bearing down, which he’s seen plenty of in 2017. According to The Washington Post, Brady has completed 56% of his passes and has a QB Rating of 96.6 when pressured, the second-best and top mark in the league, respectively. Plus, the future Hall of Famer is 15-3 at home as the No. 1 seed in the postseason, throwing 43 touchdowns against 18 interceptions in Foxborough.

NFL on ESPN pointed out that the Patriots have more conference championship appearances since 2001 than the next two closest franchises combined:

Jacksonville’s defense held opponents to an average of 15.8 points per game this year, but allowed the Steelers to score 42 points in a narrow win this past weekend. New England’s offense is even more dangerous than that, which is why the Jags players aren’t poking the bear leading up to the AFC Championship Game. Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue made it clear he wasn’t going to say anything negative about Brady and made sure to call him a great player on the record, while defensive tackle Marcell Dareus—who saw plenty of New England’s QB during his time with the Buffalo Bills—gave a glowing scouting report on the signal-caller, as per Yahoo Sports:

You can hit Brady. But hitting him is not what’s gonna get to him. It’s constantly being a gnat in his face. He hates that gnat, always around his feet, or someone in his face. Sacking him is not what gets to him. You sack him, he’s gonna get up and keep rolling. It’s that competitive spirit. ‘OK, you got me, now I’m going to throw this touchdown, 40 yards. You happy about that sack now?’ That’s just his mentality. I love playing against that guy

Even if Brady takes a beating, it’s unlikely the Jaguars are going to best them this week. There’s too much talent on both sides of the ball in New England, the team is better coached and has far more playoff experience. Prior to the start of the 2018 NFL Playoffs, the Patriots roster featured 41 players who participated in a combined 317 postseason contests, a great amount more than the Jaguars, who had only 11 players with 42 total playoff games under their belt. Considering the team that won 15 of the last 16 AFC Championship Games had the quarterback with more playoff reps—Brady now has 35 postseason games behind him, while Blake Bortles is a veteran of just two—it’s safe to say this contest isn’t going to buck the trend.

Playoff Experience Prior to 2018 NFL Playoffs

Team Playoff Experienced Players Total Playoff Games
Patriots 41 317
Vikings 28 69
Eagles 24 74
Jaguars 11 42

Via Elias Sports Bureau

If they win on Sunday, the Vikings would be the first franchise in NFL history to have home field advantage in the Super Bowl—even if they play the seasoned Patriots. In 52 years of the event, only two teams have battled for a championship in their home market—the San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl XIX at Stanford Stadium and the Los Angeles Rams lost Super Bowl XIV at the Rose Bowl—but none actively played home games at the stadium like Minnesota does at U.S. Bank Stadium, the host of Super Bowl LII. Oddsmakers usually factor in a small advantage for the home team into the point spread—three points is a good rule of thumb—but this the spectacle and magnitude of the Super Bowl makes this anything but a run-of-the-mill occurrence.

According to ESPN Chalk, bookmakers are split on how much to value the potential home advantage in Super Bowl LII. Most agree that there would be more of an impact if the Vikings take on the Jaguars instead of the Patriots. Aaron Kessler of the Golden Nugget claimed home field would be worth up to 2.5 points, with the Vikes getting a bump for travel but not venue. Chris Andrews from the South Point said Minnesota wouldn't be laying any additional points for hosting New England:

Not even one point. The [opposing] team will be there for a week, so no travel issues. Tom Brady is going to be intimidated by someone booing him? I just don't see any advantage.

Technically the Vikings would be the road team in the game, as the conferences rotate each year and 2018 marks the AFC’s turn to choose its uniform, but there would be some unique advantages for the Vikings. They’d get to use the home team locker room and their own practice facilities—which would normally belong to the AFC this year—as well as have a massive contingent of fans in attendance. The league gives the same allowances for tickets to both participating teams, but it's much easier and affordable for local supporters to purchase tickets on the secondary markets and attend the game. They will not have to incur travel costs, high hotel rates and other various prohibitive expenses that fans normally deal with when traveling for a Super Bowl .

The NFL will do its best to keep things from getting too lopsided, however. Peter O'Reilly, the league’s SVP of events, admitted to Sports Illustrated that there is a plan in place to keep competitive balance if Minnesota wins the NFC Championship Game:

We're watching it closely, no question about it, and we have been for a while. The good thing is there is a really detailed contingency plan in place that hasn't had to be rolled out before, but is in place… We stress everything that we do, whether that’s hotels or otherwise creating equity between the two participating teams and that would continue to be the lens through which we would look should this scenario play out.

Vikings fans may not want to buy their tickets for the Super Bowl just yet, as they struggled against the Eagles the last time they faced them. Going into the October 2016 contest undefeated, Minnesota was blemished for the first time in a 21-10 defeat in the same stadium it will play on Sunday. Much has changed in the year-plus since, especially under center. The Vikings have found surprising success with Case Keenum running the offense after turning to the former backup following Sam Bradford’s injury ahead of Week 2 this year. Keenum completed 325-of-481 passes for 3,547 yards and 22 touchdowns during the regular season, strong numbers, but truly showed why he’s capable of leading this team to bigger things last week. In by far the most important play of his career, the 29-year-old journeyman made a miraculous, game-winning heave to Stefon Diggs that pushed Minnesota back to its first NFC Championship since 2009.

Adam Schefter found that this type of play was unprecedented:

That play showcased the difference between him and Bradford, who set the NFL single-season completion percentage record last year (broken by Drew Brees this year). Keenum may not be as safe, but he’s willing to take the type of shots that make things happen and win games this time of year. Thanks to a league-leading defense that has his back, the Houston product can feel secure in taking calculated risks that result in huge payoffs like the one the world saw this weekend.

Philadelphia will sorely miss Carson Wentz in the NFC Championship, the second-year signal-caller who was lost for the year in Week 14 with a torn ACL. He possesses the same gun slinging mentality and even more skill than Keenum, which would have allowed the Eagles offense to keep pace with Minnesota. Instead, backup Nick Foles will starting at quarterback, someone who can manage the game fine but has only thrown one touchdown since a four-score starting debut against the hapless New York Giants.

Because of this, it’s hard to buy the Eagles as a Super Bowl contender in 2018. They’ve bonded as a team and thrived because they’ve been disrespected as an underdog, but they are now facing a group that is far more dangerous and talented on both sides of the ball—especially defensively—than the Atlanta Falcons. Beating the No. 6 seed in the Divisional Round is one thing, eliminating this hungry, seemingly blessed Vikings squad that also won 13 games this season is much different.

For that reason, expect to see the Vikings in the Super Bowl, where they’ll have a chance to win their first ever championship. They’ll get to do it in front of the home crowd, likely against one of the greatest and most talented dynasties the league has ever seen in the New England Patriots. It should make for one heck of a battle, but don’t mark it in pen yet, as there are still two fantastic, exciting conference championship games to be played where—as the 2018 NFL Playoffs has shown—anything can happen.

Most Likely Super Bowl LII Matchup: New England Patriots (AFC No. 1) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFC No. 2)