BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

2018 NFL Playoff Odds: Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Minnesota Vikings NFC Championship Game Expert Picks

Following
This article is more than 6 years old.

The 2018 NFC Championship Game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings will kick off at Lincoln Financial Field later today. After the final whistle blows, one of these franchises will advance and have an opportunity to claim their first ever title in Super Bowl LII. The stakes are clearly high for this contest and that’s why it should be one of the more exciting conference championship matchups in recent history.

Oddsmakers are giving the Vikings a slight edge, installing them as a three-point favorite on the road. The Eagles are using that line—and all the commentators picking against them—as bulletin board material. The team’s 15-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week was fueled by perceived disrespect, as some players donned now-famous dog masks and walked around their home field after the Divisional Round, reveling in their upset against the No. 6 seed. Minnesota is quite fortunate to even be laying points in this game, needing a “Minneapolis Miracle” touchdown from Stefon Diggs to escape with victory in the waning moments of their showdown with the New Orleans Saints this past Sunday.

Will the Vikings live up to the bookmakers’ expectations and handle their business against the Eagles to become the first team to ever play in a home Super Bowl, or will Philadelphia’s players don the dog masks again and celebrate an NFC Championship Game win on their home turf? Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com is back with another lean on this matchup that you will not want to miss. Before getting to the pro Las Vegas handicapper’s prediction, check out the complete schedule, start times, TV information, updated odds and more for both conference championships in the 2018 NFL Playoffs.

2018 NFL Championship Game Odds and Viewing Guide

Odds updated 1/21 at 2 p.m. ET

Time (ET) Matchup (TV) Seeding Odds Total
Sunday, Jan. 21
3:05 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (CBS) AFC No. 3 at AFC No. 1 NE -7.5 46
6:40 p.m. Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (FOX) NFC No. 2 at NFC No. 1 MIN -3 39

Super Bowl LII Championship Odds

Team Title Odds
New England Patriots +100 (1-1)
Minnesota Vikings +200 (2-1)
Philadelphia Eagles +800 (8-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +900 (9-1)

NFL Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook

 

2018 NFC Championship Preview: Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Eagles and Vikings have a longstanding history with one another, dating back to the 1960’s. These foes have met on the field 26 times in total, with three of those matchups occurring in the postseason. The all-time series is deadlocked at 13 wins apiece, although Philly holds a decisive, 3-0 advantage in the playoffs.

Here are the results for each game between these foes since the turn of the millennium:

Date Result
Nov 11, 2001 PHI 48 – MIN 17
Sep 20, 2004 PHI 27 – MIN 16
Jan 16, 2005* PHI 27 – MIN 14
Oct 28, 2007 PHI 23 – MIN 16
Jan 4, 2009* PHI 26 – MIN 14
Dec 28, 2010 MIN 24 – PHI 14
Dec 15, 2013 MIN 48 – PHI 30
Oct 23, 2016 PHI 21 – MIN 10

*Denotes Playoff Game

As you can see, the Eagles have dominated this series for nearly two decades. They won five straight in the aughts, then lost two in a row before getting back on track with a big win last season. Minnesota went into that 2016 contest undefeated and came out with its first “L” after giving the away four times and scoring a single, meaningless touchdown in the final minute with the game out of reach. The Eagles hardly played their best football either—committing four turnovers of their own and getting just 138 yards on a 16-of-28 passing performance from then-rookie Carson Wentz—but managed to win thanks to a strong rushing attack, which piled up 101 yards on 26 carries and a special teams performance that included a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.

The running game will be key for Philadelphia again this week. One of the weak points in Minnesota’s defensive armor has been stopping the run on the road. On paper, the Vikings were the second-best team in the NFL at limiting the ground attack and gave up a mere 83.6 yards per game to opposing rushers. That stat is largely padded by some truly impressive performances at home, as opponents averaged 112.1 yards per game against this front when the Vikes played away from U.S. Bank Stadium. It’s good news for the deep platoon of running backs the Eagles employ, who should be poised to get plenty of totes in on Sunday. Between Jay Ajayi—acquired from the Miami Dolphins at the trade deadline in late October—LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement, Philly’s top three RBs racked up 1,495 yards and scored seven touchdowns this season. Their usage rate should trend up in NFC Championship after putting out an efficient 96 yards and a score on 24 carries against Atlanta.

The Eagles running backs have found success pretty much wherever they played this year and the splits don’t show any significant variances at Lincoln Financial (1,075 yards on 245 carries) or the road (1,040 yards on 228 carries), although they did score more touchdowns at home (six versus three away) and had more big plays (13 rushes of 20-plus yards versus six away). This is a dangerous group because of the unpredictability, versatility and collective ability to do just about anything on the field, which is what Eagles receiver Torrey Smith highlighted when giving the scouting report on his club’s backfield, as per USA Today:

They’re all different. They move different; they’re different sizes. Look at LeGarrette, or even Corey, and Jay. They’re just all different builds. The only thing they have in common is that they all run hard.

Philadelphia can’t be one dimensional, however, if it expects to compete for a title for the first time since losing to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX back in 2005. The team will need quarterback Nick Foles, thrust into the starting job after Wentz tore his ACL in early December, to make a few plays against Minnesota’s defense that ranks first in scoring (15.8 PPG) and second in passing yardage allowed (192 YPG). The franchise looked as if it may have had a seamless transition from an MVP candidate to his backup after a four-touchdown outing in Foles’ first start against the New York Giants in Week 15, but since then the 28-year-old has only thrown for one score. It’s worth noting that Foles looked more comfortable than he had in weeks against the Falcons with a slimmed down playbook and more run-pass options being utilized, which resulted in him managing the game well and connecting on a respectable 23-of-30 passing attempts for 246 yards.

Veteran tight end Zach Ertz—who leads Philadelphia in receptions, yardage and is tied for second on the roster in touchdowns—spoke to NFL.com about how far Foles has come since the regular season ended:

The thing with Nick is that we didn't even have a training camp with him. He didn't play a preseason game; he was hurt all training camp. So the past two weeks was an opportunity for us to get on the same page, get the timing down. Quarterback-receiver timing in the NFL is the biggest reason for success. You got to be on the same page; you got to get the ball up and down the field on time and [accurately]. Nick is a very accurate quarterback; we just had to get the timing down.

The x-factor for Philadelphia’s offense is wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who has seen plenty of this Minnesota secondary during his tenure in the league. Prior to joining the Eagles as a free agent this past offseason, the 6’3” wideout spent five productive years in the NFC North as a member of the Chicago Bears. During that time, Jeffery matched up with the Vikings nine times, hauling in 45 receptions for 685 yards and seven touchdowns, scoring more on them than any other opponent he has faced. If Foles can find Jeffery—who has a height advantage on Rhodes—with a well-placed throw in a key moment, it could break the game wide open.

Doug Pederson, Philadelphia’s head coach, admitted that he has been studying film and looking for ways to exploit the impending showdown between his No. 1 wideout and All-Pro Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota’s top cornerback, as per NJ.com:

I've gone back and looked at that match-up [between Jeffery and Rhodes] in particular just to see the battle that went on and the types of things that Alshon did against him. And the coverage technique that he used. Does it apply to this game? Maybe a little. I think Alshon's a better player. I think [Rhodes] is a much better player. Obviously, he's playing with a lot of confidence. It's going to be another great match-up again Sunday evening.

Despite winning 13 games this season—and going 3-1 since Foles took over—still aren’t many giving the Eagles a chance to win this week. The doubters are providing plenty of motivation within the locker room, which has come together and embraced the role of an underdog. Defensive end Chris Long and offensive tackle Lane Johnson both put on German Shepherd masks immediately following last week’s “W” and started a craze, with fans buying out the entire stock of them on Amazon and the organization encouraging them to be worn in the stands on Sunday night.

Long tweeted a shot of himself in the mask along with some teammates:

Don’t expect the Vikings to get rattled by the crowd, as they went 5-2 on the road this year—they played one game at a neutral site, a 33-16 shellacking of the Cleveland Browns in London—and 4-1 as a favorite in those games. Their defense is a bit more beatable on the road though and gave up nearly a touchdown more per game on average (12.5 points at home versus 19 points on the road). They didn’t go up against considerably better opponents away than they did at U.S. Bank Stadium either, which should give Philly fans confidence that their team can prevail against this group. The Saints were able to drop 24 second-half points on Minnesota last week, proving that this defense isn’t impenetrable and is prone to getting scored on in bunches at times.

Offensively, the Vikings will likely continue to rely on the same balanced attack that brought them this far. The team ran pass plays on 52.93% of their snaps this year, the fourth lowest in the NFL. The offense was just a tad pass happier in the Divisional Round, throwing 40 times and rushing 29 times. The formula worked, as quarterback Case Keenum generated 318 yards and a touchdown on 25 completions, while the running backs gained 94 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries. Latavius Murray was the clear lead back, picking up 19 totes and turning them into 50 yards and a score, while McKinnon also found the end zone on one of his eight carries that he took for 34 yards.

No play was more instrumental than the last, however, as Keenum found Stefon Diggs for his sixth reception of the day and most important of his life. The third-year man out of Maryland hauled in a desperation heave with time expiring and took it to the house, avoiding two New Orleans defenders—one of which crashed into the other on a head-scratching tackle attempt—to seal the unlikely victory. It was instantly dubbed the “Minneapolis Miracle” and go down as one of the all-time great plays in the history of the franchise.

The Vikings tweeted out the play and some fan reactions stemming from it:

According to the Pioneer Press, Keenum is trying to put the Divisional Round in the past and apply the lessons he learned from it to the NFC Championship Game:

It was my first playoff experience. It’s something that I’ve said all year that I learn from every experience I am in. I definitely learned a lot from that. I learned a lot from the emotions I felt, to how I handled it, to how I prepared, and (that’s) something I am continuing to apply to this next game.

Keenum and the Minnesota offense will face a well coached, disciplined, top-five defense this week. Much of the talk leading up to the game has been about the top-ranked Vikings D, but the Eagles aren’t far behind in total defense (306.5 YPG vs. 275.9 YPG for Minnesota) and scoring (18.4 PPG vs. 15.8 PPG for Minnesota). The Vikings will be hard-pressed to come up with another miraculous, game-winning play in the final minutes of the contest and will have to execute from start to finish in order to move on to the final game of the season. Philadelphia linebacker Nigel Bradham summed it up by telling FOX Sports, “They have a great defense, we have a great defense. Whoever is most complete will win.”

Will the Eagles defense keep its opponent contained and pull off a second straight postseason upset, or will the Vikings completely lock down a team that has scored just 15 points in its last two games? Here is Jon Price’s take on the 2018 NFC Championship.

Price’s Take: “The Eagles-Vikings matchup should be closer than many are expecting. There doesn’t seem to be much public support for the home team outside the City of Brotherly Love, which is surprising given the rather small spread on the contest. This game is perfectly set up to be a very low-scoring affair given how great both defenses have been this year, the presence of two strong running attacks and the lack of seasoned veterans under center on both sides. In a battle where points will be at a premium, getting three is huge.

These are the top two teams in the league in regards to time of possession. The Eagles ranked No. 1 in TOP this season, holding the ball for an average of 32 minutes and 39 seconds, and the Vikings right behind them, averaging a possession time of 32 minutes, 29 seconds. Both squads will do their best to run the ball between the 30’s, chewing up clock and grinding out yardage. Considering the Super Bowl is on the line and neither quarterback has any experience in a situation with stakes as high as this, you can bet both coaching staffs will be doing their best to keep things simple and limit potential mistakes—which means plenty of handoffs.

With that in mind, the top play on the 2018 NFC Championship is the under. I also like the Eagles getting points, and you can read all about why by clicking here. One more thing to consider is Philadelphia has been better at creating turnovers this year—31 on the season and a plus-nine differential, compared to 19 and a plus-five differential for Minnesota—and it’s likely whichever team wins the turnover battle will win this game. The Eagles have been better in that department this year, plus they forced four turnovers against the Vikes when they met last year. If Philly can protect the football and come away with a takeaway or two, it will give them a great shot at pulling an outright upset this week. Take the points and fly with the Eagles to the Super Bowl."

Pick: Under 39, Eagles +3

Prediction: Eagles 17 – Vikings 15