Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Minnesota Vikings: Expert Picks And 5 Best Bets For NFC Championship Game

You wouldn't have looked silly whatsoever taking a Philadelphia Eagles team helmed by Carson Wentz and a Vikings team with a resurgent Sam Bradford to make it to the NFC Championship game.

The fact that Nick Foles and Case Keenum have taken these teams one step away from a Super Bowl appearance may look like a longshot on paper, but if you examine the QB's stats and the overall teams, this is far from a shock. We have the two top teams in most defensive stat categories that matter in a game where even a 38.5 total sounds high.

I have heard from many casual bettors via social media and email that they are nervous playing either of these title game matchups, but are especially queasy about the NFC with a team coming off a miracle ending against a team galvanized behind weeks of disrespect from Vegas and the TV pundits.

It's a spot where some last-second expert advice may be a welcome sight. Zack Jones of SportsBookReview.com is here to tell you there are plenty of strong plays here if you look at the trends. Beyond you make that bet, here's some matchup insight, betting trends and five best bets before the basic plays for the NFC Championship.

THE MATCHUP

JONES' EXPERT PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

"The Minnesota Vikings pulled off one of the most miraculous finishes in NFL playoff history and will now travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a date with the Eagles. Let’s check out what the oddsmakers are dealing and get on the right side of this intriguing matchup.

"On this matchup, I can’t help but back the visiting favorites. I suggest you review a top online sportsbook like Bovada to get down and cash a ticket.

Here’s why…

• Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win.
• Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.
• Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
• Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

"You could almost hear Al Michaels’ 'Do you believe in miracles?' call echoing through the decades when Stefon Diggs took a 61-yard TD strike off the hand of Case Keenum to defeat a stunned Saints’ team with no time left on the clock. It was a play that will resonate in NFL history and it took the Vikings one step closer to their pursuit of Super Bowl glory. The 29-24 victory over New Orleans last week demonstrated that this Vikings team is not only talented but have the grit and determination to defeat any opponent, no matter how dire the circumstances.

"The Eagles came out on top of a 15-10 defensive struggle with the Atlanta Falcons which put them in position to host the NFC championship game and do it without MVP candidate Carson Wentz at the helm. Nick Foles has been serviceable in his absence but far from outstanding. Philadelphia relies on the backfield tandem of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount to move the chains with Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Zach Ertz as the top aerial targets. But that may not be enough against a defensive powerhouse like Minnesota.

"Let’s face facts. The Eagles have succeeded against all odds in the absence of Carson Wentz but the opponent they face on Sunday is a different breed of cat. The Vikings boast a ferocious defense that was second in rushing yards allowed, trailing only to the team they are facing in this NFC championship. As good as Philadelphia’s run-stop unit is, No. 1 in the league allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game, their pass defense ranks 17th while Minnesota owns the No. 2 ranked passing defense, yielding just 192 yards per contest.

"Minnesota will exploit the pass defense weaknesses enough to get Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon plenty of yards.

"Foles is not good enough to beat Minnesota through the air on a consistent basis and having to run the ball against Minnesota is a recipe for third-and-outs throughout the afternoon. Although betting road chalk is not normally my recipe for success."

Jones' Pick: Vikings -3 ½

BETTING TRENDS

Minnesota

• Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
• Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
• Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
• Minnesota is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia

Philadelphia

• Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
• Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
• Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
• Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
• Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
• Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
• Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
• Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

FIVE BEST BETS BEYOND THE BASICS

Rushing Yards, Jerick McKinnon: Over 32.5 (-115)

This is a low yards total for one part of the duo that has been the fifth-most productive rushing combo since Week 5 with more than 1,300 rushing yards. As stated above, if Keenum is able to establish the pass attack early, McKinnon will be a weapon in the Vikings' plan to own time on field.

Rushing Yards, LeGarrette Blount: Over 27.5 (-105)

Another low number for a veteran that has become so dependable in eating up yards and clock in big games. Expect to Blount to get closer to 50 in this matchup.

Total Successful Field Goals, Eagles: Over 1.5 (+120)

This is a surprising number as well, as a defensive struggle inherently leads to more field goal opportunities. Rookie Jake Elliott will get the opportunities. I think he'll cash in on at least two of those chances Sunday.

Total Rushing and Receiving Yards, Latavius Murray: Under 74.5 (-105)

I expect Murray to be a contributor but not a dominant force of a successful Vikings attack. Murray accounted for 67 total yards against a Saints defense far less formidable than the Eagles. Murray is good for closer to 60 total yards in this matchup.

Total Rushing and Receiving Yards, Jay Ajayi: Under 75.5 (-105)

Ajayi couldn't crack 100 total yards against a Falcons defense that, while feisty, is not even in the same zip code as the Vikings. I foresee Ajayi being far less featured in this matchup, as the more proven Blount will get more looks. This feels like more of a 50-yard day for Ajayi if you believe the narrative that has the Vikings dominating field position and time of possession and constantly jamming the rush.