Oakland Raiders Vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Week 7 Odds And Picks For Thursday Night Football

Week 7 of the 2017 NFL season will begin tonight when the Oakland Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. Both AFC West rivals are looking to get back on track after losing this past Sunday. This one has the potential to be a close contest, especially since the Chiefs just proved they were vulnerable for the first time this season. The team suffered its first defeat, bringing a previously unblemished record down to 5-1—which is still the top mark in the league—after it failed to contain the Pittsburgh Steelers’ rushing attack.

Oakland would be wise to replicate that game plan, although the team has been struggling to generate consistent offense over the past month. The club has now dropped four straight matchups and is in serious danger of missing out on a postseason appearance this year. At 2-4, the Raiders direly need to get off the schneid, but they won’t find it easy against an angry Chiefs team that they have not found a way to beat since 2014.

Oddsmakers are expecting this one to be decided by a field goal, opening betting with the Chiefs as a three-point road favorite. It’s a solid line, one that could certainly go either way tonight. If you are looking for advice on how to bet this game, you’ve come to the right place, as Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com is once again providing his expert opinion on the matter. Before we get to this pro handicapper’s prediction, here’s a preview—including start time, TV information, updated odds and more—for Week 7’s Thursday Night Football battle between the Chiefs and Raiders.

Thursday Night Football Week 7 TV Schedule and Odds

TNF Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook

As mentioned, the Chiefs were the last remaining undefeated team going into Week 6. It figures that the Steelers—an opponent they have had a lot of trouble with in recent years—would be the ones to finally fell them. Pittsburgh executed a smashmouth offensive attack led by superstar running back Le’Veon Bell—who racked up 179 yards and a touchdown on 32 totes—that was eerily similar to the game plan it employed during its AFC Divisional Round victory January.

If you need a refresher, the Chiefs had their most recent postseason appearance cut short by the Steelers, a disappointing finish after breaking through to win AFC West for the first time since 2010. Bell was brilliant in that game too, as the Michigan State product rushed 30 times for 170 yards, guiding his side to the AFC Championship Game on the road by steadily moving the chains during a low-scoring, defensive-oriented, field goal fiesta.

The Chiefs had clearly put that disappointing performance behind them and burst out of the gate this season, winning five in a row—including signature victories against the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles—but they once again ran into a black and yellow brick wall at Arrowhead Stadium. Fortunately for Kansas City, this loss doesn’t mark the end of its season, and now the team has a chance to pick up the pieces and move on to face a reeling Raiders squad that it has pushed around in recent years.

Since head coach Andy Reid took over the Chiefs at the start of the 2013 campaign, they have lost just once to Oakland. Here’s a look at the results for each matchup in that span (home team in bold):

KC vs. OAK Head-to-Head (Since 2013)

Chiefs also lead series since 2010, 8-6 and all-time, 62-52-2.

As you can see, it’s been a rough go for the Raiders over the past four seasons. Their only win, interestingly enough, came on Thursday Night Football in 2014, but that one took place at the Oakland Coliseum. Kansas City emerged victorious in the most recent contest—which was also on TNF—in December at Arrowhead. If the Raiders are going to get on the right track and back in the win column, they are absolutely going to need a strong performance out of slumping quarterback Derek Carr.

Carr started off his 2017 season with a pair of great outings, passing for 492 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions while connecting on 45-of-60 attempts. It all went downhill for the young signal-caller and his team in Week 3, when Carr generated just 118 yards and a single touchdown, while also tossing two interceptions in a blowout 27-10 loss to the Washington Redskins in front of a primetime Sunday Night Football audience.

Things took a turn for the worse when Carr suffered a back injury the following week against the Denver Broncos, which caused him to miss Week 5’s showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. The former Fresno State star was expected to lift his team upon his return in Week 6, but mustered just 171 yards and a single touchdown to go with two picks and a fumble.

A contributing factor to this lack of success—and yardage—is that Carr is hardly throwing the ball down the field. New offensive coordinator Todd Downing, who took over for Bill Musgrave in the offseason despite the former OC’s offense ranking No. 2 in the AFC last year, has been reluctant to been draw up down-field plays for his cannon-armed QB. It’s an issue that Downing should be actively working to fix, especially considering Carr is aware and frustrated by it, per ESPN:

You know, you definitely want more [deep throws]. We definitely want more. There's no doubt about that. We're going to work and we're going to get more. We are because we have a good group. I think we all believe that here. I think we all have seen it. We've seen how hard we work, and I think everyone in this circle sees we have a good group of guys that work really hard. It's not like we're going out there trying not to make it happen.

Levi Damien tweeted that Raiders have utilized fewer play-actions than any other team in the league this year, a statistic that correlates to the dearth of deep passes:

Along w/ #Raiders NFL low 12 play action passes, Derek Carr has thrown just 10 deep passes. This once high powered offense is neutered.

— Levi Damien (@LeviDamien) October 16, 2017

No one understands the success that big plays can bring better than the Chiefs. They have been hitting home runs all season long thanks to their pair of young playmakers: rookie running back Kareem Hunt and sophomore receiver Tyreek Hill. These two are responsible for a number of big-yardage plays and touchdowns in 2017, a major reason why Kansas City holds the best record in football. Hunt has been downright special in his first NFL season, totaling up a league-leading 885 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns across six starts. He’s revolutionized the Chiefs offense, lifting it out of mediocrity all the way up to No. 2 in scoring (29.5 points) and total yardage (387) per game.

There is some concern about how the Kansas City offensive line will hold up without starting right tackle Marshall Newhouse, who has been ruled out tonight, according to to Michael Gehlken:

Raiders ruled out RT Marshall Newhouse (foot) and CB Gareon Conley (shin) vs. Chiefs. Questionable: LB Lee, LB Morrow, LB James, FB Olawale.

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) October 18, 2017

Even if the Chiefs struggle to get the ground game going, the Raiders have not fared well against receiving backs this year. Washington’s Chris Thompson, the league’s top pass-catching back in terms of yardage, shredded them for 150 yards and a score on six receptions. Oakland linebacker Cory James said that the defense has a recipe to contain Hunt tonight, and it sounds like something Patriots coach Bill Belichick would say—as per The Mercury News: “It comes down to technique. Don’t let them beat you inside, force them out of bounds. Just do your job.”

Will the Raiders be able to do their job and stop Hunt? Will it even matter if they can’t find a way to score enough points for the fifth straight week? Here are Jon Price’s thoughts on it all:

Price’s Take: “The AFC West is going through Kansas City right now, but the Raiders can at least make it more competitive by winning this primetime contest. Oakland is a home underdog for the first time in 2017, and while those types of teams have been wise bets in general based on league-wide trends in 2017, it may not be a spot to back this team in. Since 2015, the Raiders are just 2-5 ATS when getting points at the Oakland Coliseum, a cover rate of 28.6%—which is ahead of only the Chargers and Browns during that span.

On the other hand, the Chiefs are the hottest team to wager on right now. They boast a cover rate of 83.3% due to an ATS record that matches it straight up one. Kansas City is no stranger to being a road favorite either, having already won in this situation twice this season. Since Andy Reid took over in 2013, the Chiefs have the league’s premiere team at covering on the road, amassing an eye-popping 15-4 ATS record in that span. They’ve been even better since 2015, going 10-1 ATS as an away favorite over the past two and a half seasons.

That isn’t a track record you want to bet against, especially given how poorly Oakland has played against Reid since he joined the division—winning just once in eight tries. Despite earning their first postseason berth in 14 years just 10 months ago, the Raiders were one of the more popular picks to regress this season. It’s going to be tough for Oakland to make back-to-back trips if the club falls to 2-5. It appears that is exactly what is going to happen on Thursday. Lay the points here and watch as Kansas City earns yet another win by knocking off their AFC West rival.”

Pick: Chiefs -3

Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Raiders 21

Below you can find odds and TV schedule for every remaining Week 7 game

NFL Week 7 Schedule and Odds

NFL Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook